System and method for data collection, evaluation, information generation, and presentation

ABSTRACT

The present invention relates to a system and method for data collection, evaluation, information generation and/or presentation. More particularly the present invention relates to a system for collecting, evaluating, and presenting data relating to electronic commerce. The system and methods of the present invention include one or more of the following: a module for stabilizing small or noisy samples of data, including the prediction of missing observations; alarm modules that alert an event handler when data values and/or rates cross specified thresholds; predictor modules that use recent historical data along with an estimated and/or available population function as the basis for a differential equation that defines the growth of the population to a saturation or maximum attainable level; and a dynamic icon that conveys to users of a system levels of predefined and/or observed activity occurring on the system.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

The present invention relates to a system and method for datacollection, evaluation, information generation, and presentation. Moreparticularly the present invention relates to a system for collecting,evaluating, and presenting data, and generating information relating toelectronic commerce. The system and methods of the present inventioninclude one or more of the following: a module for stabilizing small ornoisy samples of data; alarm modules that alert an event handler whendata values cross specified thresholds; predictor modules that userecent historical data along with an estimated and/or availablesaturation population function as the basis for a differential equationthat defines the growth of the population to a maximum attainable level;and a dynamic icon that conveys to users of a system levels ofpredefined activity occurring on the system.

The availability of relatively low cost, powerful computer systems andthe development of online communication systems and networks—principallythe Internet and its protocols, and the availability of low-costconsumer computer systems—have fueled the growth of e-commerce. As usedherein “e-commerce” means commercial transactions for goods or services,particularly wholesale or retail sales of products or services, orbartered exchange of the foregoing, over global computer networks, suchas the Internet, or any smaller computer network that unites users andsuppliers of goods or services.

The rapid growth of e-commerce makes the need for such guidance evenmore compelling. In a study by the assignee of the present invention, itwas found that over the 12-month period ending June 1999, total retaile-commerce sales tripled from $2.67 to $7.94 billion. (Source: 2^(ND)QTR: 1999 Consumer Online Report for Total Retail e-commerce, publishedby BizRate.com, 1999).

The Internet has been swiftly facilitating the growth of local andregional markets into national and international markets. This marketexpansion provides consumers with many new advantages and opportunitiesincluding better product pricing, product selection, product quality,and customer service. The market expansion also creates new advantagesand opportunities for businesses, including a broader base of consumersand suppliers. With the advantages and opportunities come newchallenges.

The success of a business engaged in e-commerce may depend on how wellit understands the dynamics and parameters of the e-commercemarketplace, and how well the business understands its status in suchmarketplace. Unfortunately, traditional models for evaluating theperformance of a business are not well suited or optimized forevaluating the performances of businesses engaged in e-commerce. Thenature of e-commerce and the manner in which it is conducted demand newand improved systems and methods for evaluating business performance.Consumers also need guidance so that they may understand their optionsand make the best decisions when doing business online.

From the consumer perspective, chief among the challenges is findingamong the myriad of online businesses the merchants who offer thecategory of products sought at the best pricing, product selection,product quality, reputation, etc. The rating of a merchant relative tosuch variables may change rapidly in response to marketplace conditions.For example, marketplace competition may drive competitors to changetheir prices daily. Product availability may also change on as frequenta basis. For such reasons, consumers need a mechanism that helps themquickly locate the best merchants for their needs based on the mostcurrent and accurate data and information available.

Merchants also face new challenges in the online marketplace. They mustbe able to reach consumers and communicate to consumers the value theycan deliver. To do this, they must understand the competition, and whatdrives consumers to make purchases. They must monitor their own pricesrelative to competitors' prices on a frequent basis to remaincompetitive. They must also understand what level of satisfaction ordissatisfaction consumers have from transactions with themselves andcompetitors, as well as the bases of satisfaction or dissatisfaction.For such reasons, merchants need a mechanism that helps them quicklyobtain the most current and accurate information.

Traditionally, marketing surveys have been employed to determine howwell a business rates in the eyes of consumers. Direct feedback fromconsumers provides important information. In traditional forms ofcommerce, consumer satisfaction surveys have been long used to gatherdirect feedback from consumers. (Traditional forms of commerce includein-store, telephonic, and mail order commerce.) The surveys helpbusinesses understand what positive and negative things they are doing.With the proper understanding, the businesses may reinforce the positivethings and correct the negative ones. The more accurate and current thesurvey results, the better a business can achieve its objectives.

Unfortunately, administering and processing consumer surveys, even intraditional modes of commerce, has been problematic in various respects,for example:

-   -   How do you get consumers to fill out such surveys?    -   Is the sample size of responses large enough to produce accurate        reports?    -   How do you input and process the data?    -   Has the data been processed in a timely manner?    -   How are results to be timely reported to businesses?    -   What do the results mean to the business?    -   What steps should the business take in view of the results?    -   What has been the effect of any remedial action?

With respect to these questions, there are many problems. The surveysare typically presented to consumers as paper questionnaires for theconsumers to manually fill in. Such surveys may be costly to constructand print. Once printed, they cannot be modified. Consumers generallydislike filling out survey questionnaires, and therefore it may bedifficult or time consuming for the survey sponsor to gather enoughcompleted survey questionnaires to constitute a statisticallysignificant sample size. Often, the completed survey questionnaires mustbe returned by mail; even if a consumer has filled out the surveyquestionnaire, the consumer may not take the trouble of dropping it inthe mailbox.

To overcome these kinds of problems, survey sponsors sometimes employindividuals to field survey responses from individuals. Theseindividuals may be stationed in a store to verbally field answers tosurvey questions or they may telephone consumers after a transaction.The problem with using individuals to administer surveys is the cost ofadministering the survey and the intrusiveness of the process. Theintrusiveness is such that consumers may be alienated from doing furtherbusiness with a merchant. This is particularly a concern relative totelephone surveys. With intrusive survey methods, even if the consumeris inclined to answer questions by a survey taker, the consumer'sanswers may be skewed toward an unfavorable response, creatinginaccurate results.

The processing of completed survey questionnaires has its own set ofdisadvantages. The completed survey questionnaires usually must be readby data entry personnel and manually input by them into a dataprocessing system. This not only adds to the cost of administering asurvey, but it also results in delays between the time surveys are takenand the time the results are processed.

In view of the inherent delays in administering surveys and inputtingsurvey data, by the time a business receives a report of the results ofa survey, the results may no longer be accurate. For example, consider asurvey about price competitiveness: competitors may have dropped pricesin the interval between the responses to a survey and the processing andreporting of information. During such an interval, a business could losesignificant sales and revenues because they have not reactedcontemporaneously to competitors' price changes. If there is a declinein consumer service ratings that is not corrected quickly because of theinterval between survey responses and reporting of results, a businessmay also lose consumer goodwill, and consequently sales and revenues.

Another problem with traditional survey modes is that a business mayhave difficulty benefiting from the survey results. One reason is that,although a business can take remedial action in view of the results, tomonitor the results of any remedial action requires a subsequent survey.There is a disincentive for a subsequent survey because of all theaforementioned disadvantages related to traditional modes of surveyingsuch as cost, time required, etc. However, if the problems inherent intraditional forms of surveying could be overcome, subsequent surveyscould be undertaken to determine the effectiveness of remedial actiondictated by the initial survey.

In view of the disadvantages in traditional survey methodology, a fewyears ago the assignee of the present invention developed andimplemented a novel system for providing timely and accurate reportingof information relating to the sales, marketing, consumer satisfaction,and other commercial activities of participating businesses. In thesystem, online buyers are non-intrusively invited to fill out a surveyquestionnaire immediately after completing a purchase at a participatingmerchant. The invitation is in the form of a banner on the orderconfirmation receipt from a participating merchant's website. If thebuyer has clicked on the banner to accept the survey questionnaire, thebuyer is hyper-linked to a questionnaire from a survey system server.The buyer completes the survey questionnaire and the survey data areelectronically returned to a data processing system for processing andevaluating survey results. The same system can electronically report theprocessed results from a sample of survey questionnaires directly toparticipating or subscribing merchants.

Thus, the system of the assignee overcomes disadvantages in the art byproviding a system that electronically gathers data and transmits itdirectly into the data processing system. Among the advantages of thissystem, it eliminates the need for manual entry of data on paper forms;the use of individuals to take and input survey data gathered fromconsumers; the delays that occur between data collection and input, anddata input and processing; and the costs associated with suchmethodologies. While this system has begun to address many disadvantagesof traditional modes of surveying, processing, and evaluating surveydata, the dynamics of the e-commerce marketplace demand faster and moreaccurate data gathering, processing, evaluation and reporting of dataand information.

The rate at which reports can be issued depends on how fast surveyresponses are returned and on the minimum sample size required. It isfundamental in statistical sciences that, when conventional modes ofstatistical analysis are employed, an inadequately small sample or anoisy sample will lead to inaccurate results. However, business andmarketplace conditions may be changing faster than adequate sample sizescan be gathered for accurate results using conventional modes ofstatistical analysis and estimation theory. Such conventional modesinclude “moving window averages” (weighted and unweighted). Accordingly,businesses may be at risk if certain trends relating to the business ormarketplace take shape before data is collected in sample sizes suitablefor traditional modes of statistical analysis and estimation.

In view of the foregoing, there is a strong need for novel dataprocessing systems that can discern trends and otherwise provide resultsbased on limited or noisy data samples. Further in view of theforegoing, there is a substantial need for data gathering, processingand evaluation systems that quickly alert businesses to incipient trendsin their business activities and marketplace so that appropriate actionmay be taken to protect and advance a business's well-being. There isalso a need for systems that allow a business to predict growth ratesand limits of variables relating to the business or marketplace.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The present invention relates to a system and method for datacollection, information generation, evaluation, and presentation thatovercomes the aforementioned problems in the prior art. Moreparticularly the present invention relates to a system for collectingdata, generating, evaluating, and presenting information relating toelectronic commerce via the Internet. The system and methods of thepresent invention include one or more of the following: a module forstabilizing small or noisy samples of data; alarm modules that alert ahandler when data values are anomalous or cross specified thresholds;predictor modules that use recent historical data along with anestimated and/or available saturation population function as the basisfor a differential equation that predicts the future growth of thepopulation to a maximum attainable level; and a dynamic measurementindicator that conveys to users of a system levels of predefined andongoing activity occurring on another system. The fields of theinvention include ecommerce; information retrieval/analysis; andplanning and control. Before the present invention, the period forgathering sufficient quantities of data to resolve a trend oftenexceeded the time required for a merchant to begin suffering lost salesor other harms because of an undetected incipient trend.

In one novel embodiment, the present invention provides a system fordata collection, evaluation, information generation, and/or presentationcomprising a data capture server capable of receiving data from a datasource; one or more databases for receiving data from the data captureserver; a plurality of processing modules in communication with eachother and/or the one or more databases, each processing moduleperforming a predefined operation on data stored in a database orreceived from a processing module, at least two processing modules beingselected from the group consisting of: a statistical analysis processingmodule; a data stabilizer processing module; a saturation limitedforecasting module; a dynamic activity-level icon module; and an alarmfilter module; one or more databases in communication with one or moreprocessing modules for storing processed data received from a selectedprocessing module; and a presentation server in communication with oneor more of the databases for receiving items of data stored therein andpresenting selected items of data. In the foregoing embodiment, anycombination of processing modules may be selected. The foregoingembodiment may provide for the data capture server to be communicationwith a data source comprising one or more remote computer systems. Thedata capture server may be adapted to receive data from computer systemsof consumers following an online e-commerce transaction.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides a system fordata collection, evaluation, information generation, and/or presentationcomprising a data capture server capable of receiving data from a datasource over a computer network, the data source providing data relatedto a transaction between buyers and sellers; one or more databases forreceiving data from the data capture server; a plurality of processingmodules in communication with each other and/or one or more of thedatabases, each processing module performing a predefined operation ondata stored in a database or received from a processing module, at leasttwo processing modules being selected from the group consisting of: astatistical analysis processing module; a data stabilizer processingmodule; a saturation limited forecasting module; a dynamicactivity-level icon module; and an alarm filter module; one or moredatabases in communication with one or more processing modules forstoring processed data received from a selected processing module; and apresentation server in communication with one or more of the databasesfor receiving items of data stored therein and presenting selected itemsof data as data or information, data on the presentation server beingaccessible to remote computer systems via a network. In the foregoingembodiment, the network over which the data source and data captureserver communicate may be the Internet, and the presentation server maybe accessible by remote computer systems via the Internet. The foregoingembodiments may further provide for a survey server that serves a surveyquestionnaire to a remote computer system comprising a data source sothat a user of a remote computer system comprising the data source cancomplete the survey questionnaire, a completed survey questionnairecontaining data supplied by the user being returnable to the datacapture server over the Internet. The remote computer systems may be aplurality of consumer and/or merchant computer systems. A consumer maycomplete a survey questionnaire with data about an online transactionbetween the consumer and a merchant. In the foregoing systems, thepresentation server may serve data comprising ratings about onlinemerchants, the ratings being based on data collected by the data captureserver from consumer computer systems.

In a further novel embodiment, the present invention provides apresentation server for serving web pages to a plurality of remotecomputer systems over a network; the web pages including ratingsinformation for one or more merchants; the ratings information beingderived from data captured from buyer computer systems and processed bya data stabilizer processing module. The web page may further include alink to the website of a rated merchant. It may also include a dynamicactivity-level icon for showing the level of a predetermined activity ata rated merchant website. The web page may further include informationabout incentive programs offered to a user of a remote computer system.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides apresentation server for serving web pages via a network to a pluralityof remote computer systems; one or more web pages including a dynamicactivity-level icon for indicating a level of a predetermined activityat one or more predetermined websites. A web page may include at leasttwo dynamic activity-level icons, each being for competitive merchantsand the web page is accessible by remote computer systems of consumers.In the foregoing embodiment, the network may be the Internet. The webpage in the foregoing embodiment may include a reference dynamicactivity-level icon. In the foregoing embodiment, one or more dynamicactivity-level icons on a web page may be each associated with a link toa corresponding merchant website. In the foregoing embodiment, theratings for a merchant may also be associated with the dynamicactivity-level icon and the link to the merchant website.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides apresentation server for serving web pages via a network to a pluralityof remote computer systems; one or more web pages including a dynamicactivity-level icon for indicating a level of a predetermined activityfor one or more products being sold by one or more merchants over acomputer network. The presentation server may make the web pagesaccessible to consumer computer systems via a network comprising theInternet.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides apresentation server that includes and serves a dynamic activity-levelapplet via a network to a plurality of remote computer systems, theapplet enabling a remote computer system to access a data source thatcommunicates data representative of a predefined activity level, theapplet implementing a dynamic activity-level icon on a display of theremote computer system based on and responsive to the data communicatedto it. The presentation server may serve the applet to remote computersystems comprising consumer computer systems. The network may be theInternet.

In another novel embodiment, the presentation server provides a methodfor data collection, evaluation, information generation, and/orpresentation comprising capturing data from a data source in a datacapture server; transferring data from the data capture server to one ormore databases for receiving data; transferring data from the one ormore databases to one or more processing modules, each processing modulecapable of performing a predefined operation on transferred data, atleast two processing modules being selected from the group consistingof: a statistical analysis processing module; a data stabilizerprocessing module; a saturation limited forecasting module; a dynamicactivity-level icon module; and an alarm filter module, the processingmodule outputting processed data or information; presenting selecteditems of processed data or information via a presentation server. Thedata may be transferred to the data capture server by one or more remotecomputer systems via a network, which may be the Internet, for example.The captured data may relate e-commerce transactions. The onlinetransactions may be consumer-merchant transactions and/or business tobusiness transactions. The data may be transferred to the data captureserver via consumer computer systems. The method may also includeproviding a survey server that serves a survey questionnaire to one ormore remote computer systems comprising data sources so that a user of aremote computer system comprising the data source can complete thesurvey questionnaire, a completed survey questionnaire containing datasupplied by the user being returnable to the data capture server overthe Internet. In the method, the one or more remote computer systems maybe a plurality of consumer and/or merchant computer systems and thecompleted survey questionnaire contain data about an online transactionbetween the consumer and a merchant. In the method, the presentationserver may serve data comprising ratings about online merchants. Theratings may be derived from data collected by the data capture serverfrom consumer computer systems.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides a methodcomprising deriving ratings for one or more merchants using a datastabilizer, and serving web pages to a plurality of remote networkedcomputer systems, the web pages including the derived ratingsinformation for one or more merchants. The served web pages may includea link to the website of a rated merchant. A web page may include adynamic activity-level icon for showing the level of a predeterminedactivity at a rated merchant website. The web page may includeinformation about incentive programs offered to a user. The method mayinclude associating one or more dynamic activity-level icons forindicating a level of a predetermined activity at one or morepredetermined websites with one or more web pages, and serving the oneor more web pages via a network to a plurality of remote computersystems. In the method, a web page may include at least two dynamicactivity-level icons, each being for competitive merchants and the webpage is accessible by remote computer systems of consumers. A referencedynamic activity-level icon may also be included. One or more dynamicactivity-level icons on a web page may be associated with a link to acorresponding merchant website. The ratings for a merchant may also beassociated with the dynamic activity-level icon and/or the link to themerchant website. In the method, a web page may include at least twodynamic activity-level icons, one indicating the level of a predefinedactivity for a merchant website, the other being a reference icon forindicating a predetermined level of the predefined activity, the webpage being accessible by a consumer remote computer system.

In another embodiment, the present invention provides a methodcomprising serving web pages via a network comprising the Internet to aplurality of remote consumer computer systems; one or more web pagesincluding a dynamic activity-level icon for indicating a level of apredetermined activity for one or more products being sold by one ormore merchants over a computer network. A web page may include at leasttwo dynamic activity-level icons, each being for competitive merchantsand the web page is accessible by remote computer systems of consumers.The dynamic activity-level icons may relate to relative buying activityat the merchant websites.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides a methodcomprising serving a dynamic activity-level applet via a network to aplurality of remote computer systems, the applet enabling a remotecomputer system to access a data source that communicates datarepresentative of a predefined activity level, the applet implementingone or more dynamic activity-level icons on a display of the remotecomputer system based on and responsive to the data communicated to it.The presentation server serves the applet to remote computer systemscomprising consumer computer systems. In the method, data iscommunicated to a consumer computer system with the applet for inputinto the applet, the applet implementing the dynamic activity-level iconin accordance to the input data. The communicated data may relate toactivities at one or more merchant websites. For example, thecommunicated data may relate to relative buying activities atcompetitive merchant websites. Alternatively, for example, thecommunicated data may relate to activity levels for one or more of aproduct, product-type, and product category.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides apresentation server that includes web pages containing data orinformation that has been derived from at least two processing modulesselected from the group consisting of a statistical analysis processingmodule; a data stabilizer processing module; a saturation limitedforecasting module; a dynamic activity-level icon module; and an alarmfilter module, the web pages being accessible to a plurality of remotemerchant systems over a computer network, such as the Internet.

In another novel embodiment, the present invention provides apresentation server that includes web pages containing data orinformation that has been derived from at least two processing modulesselected from the group consisting of a statistical analysis processingmodule; a data stabilizer processing module; a saturation limitedforecasting module; a dynamic activity-level icon module; and an alarmfilter module, the web pages being accessible to a plurality of remoteconsumer computer systems over a computer network, such as the Internet.In the foregoing embodiments, the web pages may include, for example,evaluation information about merchant performance, the information beingderived from data processed by a selected processing module.

The foregoing enumeration of embodiments has been for illustrativepurposes only. Other embodiments, combinations of embodiments andcombinations of features are also within the scope and spirit of theteachings described herein, as will be apparent to persons skilled inthe art of these teachings.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIGS. 1 (a–g) is an example of a possible consumer survey questionnairefor rating an online merchant and collecting demographic informationabout a consumer.

FIGS. 2 (a–b) is another example of a possible consumer surveyquestionnaire for rating an online merchant and collecting demographicinformation about a consumer.

FIG. 3 is a schema of a system for processing and evaluating datarelating to e-commerce, in accordance with one or more aspects of thepresent invention.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram that generally illustrates some features of acomputer system that may be used in the present invention.

FIGS. 5 a–e show means of presenting certain kinds of informationprocessed from data collected from an exemplary consumer surveyquestionnaire, the information being presented in tabular and graphicalformats.

FIGS. 6 a–b show means of presenting certain kinds of informationprocessed from data collected from an exemplary consumer surveyquestionnaire, the information being presented in tabular and graphicalformat.

FIG. 7 is a flow chart for a processing module that may be used in thesystem of FIG. 3.

FIG. 8 is a flow chart for steps performed by the processing module ofFIG. 7.

FIG. 9 is a flow chart of an alarm filter system, according to thepresent invention, that activates an alarm under specified conditions.

FIG. 10 is a flow chart for a processing module that may be used in thesystem of FIG. 3.

FIG. 11 is a schematic representation of functions related to theprocessing module of FIG. 10.

FIG. 12 is a graphical representation of functions related to theprocessing module of FIG. 10.

FIG. 13 graphically illustrates that the prime pull (saturation limit)P₀ draws and meters the growth of P₁, in accordance with the principlesof the processing module of FIG. 10.

FIG. 14 is an input array related to the processing module of FIG. 10.

FIG. 15 is a flow chart for a processing module that may be used in thesystem of FIG. 3.

FIG. 16 is an example web page from an infomediary website showingfeatures of the present invention.

FIG. 17 is an example web page from the infomediary website of FIG. 16showing features of the present invention.

FIG. 18 is an example web page from the infomediary website of FIG. 16showing features of the present invention.

FIGS. 19 a–b are an example web page from the infomediary site of FIG.16 describing certain features in accordance with the present invention.

FIG. 20 is an example third party web page that is linked to theinfomediary web page of FIG. 18, which is included to illustratefeatures of the present invention. (The applicant for patent claims norights in the content of the third party web page shown, with all rightsto such content remaining with the owner of that page.)

FIG. 20 is an example web page from the infomediary website of FIG. 16showing features of the present invention.

FIG. 21 is an example web page from the infomediary website of FIG. 16showing features of the present invention.

FIG. 22 is an example web page from the infomediary website of FIG. 16showing features of the present invention.

FIG. 23 is an example web page from the infomediary website of FIG. 16showing features of the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

The present invention is a novel system and method for processing andevaluating data, and generating information relating to networkedinformation retrieval and analysis, planning and control; andparticularly e-commerce. The system preferably uses data gathered fromor about transactions that occur online. The data may be gathered fromany number of sources. It may be directly gathered from providers ofgoods or services, e.g., merchants, and users of goods or services,e.g., consumers, or other participants in an online transaction. Thedata may also be gathered from third-party suppliers of previouslycollected data. The data may be evaluated with respect to transactionswith particular merchants, a group of merchants, a group of consumers,or with respect to one or more categories of trade based on datagathered from one or more merchants, consumers, or third-party datasources in one or more trade categories.

In addition to evaluation of merchants and any other suppliers of goodsand services, and trade categories, the present invention alsocontemplates evaluations of specific products and services. Theprinciples of the present invention are equally applicable to suchevaluations. Products and services may be evaluated based on definedattributes. For example, defined attributes could include: satisfactionwith product quality, price, durability, longevity, safety, warranty,customer service; ease of assembly, use, maintenance or repair; cost ofoperation or repair; upgradability; compatibility, etc. Consumer surveyquestionnaires served at time of purchase or following a purchase couldbe used to collect attribute data. In addition, the data could beprovided by expert non-consumers such as expert evaluators, as well asother conventional means.

The present invention also contemplates that an intermediary data sourcecould collect data about merchants or products. An intermediary would bea party that is not the manufacturer or seller of the thing beingevaluated. For example, an intermediary website could allow evaluators,such as consumers, to complete questionnaires for merchants, products,or services they wish to rate. The questionnaires could be provided onweb pages served to consumers by the intermediary's web server. Thewebsite could offer incentives to motivate consumers to completesurveys. The intermediary could supply or provide the completed surveyquestionnaire data to or for the data capture systems of the presentinvention, as described below.

To illustrate features of the present invention relevant to processingand evaluating data received from the foregoing possible sources, thepresent invention will be discussed in terms of a specific example. Thisexample is based on online retail transactions between consumers andmerchants for goods or services sold online. Persons skilled in the artwill recognize that the principles of the present invention illustratedin the example can readily be adapted for other e-commerce applicationsinvolving sellers and buyers, including business to businesstransactions. Accordingly, the embodiments shown in FIGS. 1–15, anddescribed herein, should not be construed as limiting the invention tothe specific embodiments shown and described.

FIGS. 1 (a–g) show one possible embodiment of an online surveyquestionnaire. In particular, the Figures show screen shots of aconsumer survey questionnaire for a retail online transaction. Thesurvey questionnaire may be accessed through a direct link or a framedlinked on a merchant's web page that connects to the surveyquestionnaire host server. The consumer may be invited to fill out anonline survey questionnaire following an online purchase, for example.The invitation may be conveniently included on the invoice or orderconfirmation web page or email.

The survey questionnaire 100 invites a consumer to rate a merchantrelative to five attributes in ten dimensions (a 1–10 rating):

(1) Ease of Ordering 102;

This attribute relates to the convenience and speed of ordering from themerchant's website.

(2) Product Selection 104;

This attribute relates to the breadth of products that the merchant hasavailable, keeping in mind the merchant's stated area of focus.

(3) Product Information 106;

This attribute relates to the quality, quantity, and relevance ofinformation provided for making a purchase decision an informed one.

(4) Product Prices 108; and

This attribute considers product prices relative to the competition.

(5) Web Site Navigation & Looks 110.

This attribute relates to the overall layout/organization, movementaround the site; missing/non-functional links; speed; and howappropriately graphics were used to enhance the shopping experience.

The survey questionnaire includes ten merchant rating fields 112 foreach attribute. It also includes an “NA” (not applicable) field. Arating of 1–2 corresponds to “not at all” satisfied; 3–4, “a little”satisfied; 5–6 “somewhat” satisfied; 7–8 “quite a bit” satisfied; and9–10 “highly” satisfied. Performance ratings are intended to givemerchants an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how they areperforming in the eyes of their consumers.

The collected survey questionnaire data from a survey questionnaire 100is communicated to a data capture server 14 where the data is parsed,stored, and communicated to storage, processing modules, etc. describedherein.

As shown in FIGS. 2 (a–b), one or more post-purchase or “fulfillment”survey questionnaires 200 may be sent to a consumer that has filled outthe survey questionnaire 100 and taken delivery of the purchased productat set intervals. The survey questionnaire may, for example, be sent byemail and may include a hyperlink to a survey questionnaire server 14where the collected survey questionnaire data is parsed, stored, andcommunicated to processing modules described herein. The consumer isasked to rate the merchant relative to five attributes in tendimensions:

(1) On-Time Delivery 202;

This attribute relates to timeliness in the context of the promiseddelivery date.

(2) Product Representation 204;

This attribute relates to how well the online product description anddepiction compared to what was actually delivered.

(3) Level & Quality of Consumer Support 206;

This attribute relates to how available and effective the merchant wasin resolving any questions/complaints or problems that the consumerencountered. It also relates to any steps the merchant took to make surethat that the consumer was informed of order status and was happy withthe transaction. (This is left blank if not applicable.)

(4) Posted Privacy Policies 208;

This attribute related to the security of credit card, personal, andtransaction information.

(5) Product Shipping & Handling 210.

This attribute relates to the appropriateness and condition of productpackaging.

As with the initial survey questionnaire 100, a merchant's fulfillmentratings may be expressed as a rating on a scale of 1–10 in fulfillmentrating fields 212. A rating of 1–2 corresponds to “not at all”satisfied; 3–4, “a little” satisfied; 5–6 “somewhat” satisfied; 7–8“quite a bit” satisfied; and 9–10 “highly” satisfied. Performanceratings are intended to give merchants an accurate and comprehensiveunderstanding of how they performed in the eyes of their consumers.

It is to be understood that survey questionnaires 100 and 200 are merelyexemplary. The survey questionnaires may include more or less attributesthan are shown, may be based on other quantitative rating scales, may bebased on qualitative ratings, etc. In other words, the surveyquestionnaires may be customized to evaluate any matter of interest. Asurvey questionnaire may also include fields relating to a consumer'sparticular demographics, preferences, dollar amounts spent,expectations, comments, etc. as shown in survey questionnaires 100 and200. FIGS. 1 b–1 f and 2 b are screenshots of survey questionnaires thatquery a consumer on such other information. The survey questionnaire mayinclude data that is automatically attached to the survey questionnaireor otherwise associated with it by the merchant. This data may includean identifier for the purchased product (e.g., sku), product purchaseprice, number ordered, etc. The information can provide comprehensivemeasurement and benchmarking of buyer demographics, transactionalbehaviors, and shopping preferences because it has been continuouslycollecting point-of-sale data from online consumers. The foregoingsurvey questionnaires and other potentially obtainable data through suchsurvey questionnaires or other means are examples of data relating to ane-commerce transaction between a consumer and a merchant.

Among other things, the information that may be extracted from the datahelps merchants increase buyer conversion and build loyalty throughunderstanding buyer preferences; and provides companies with the abilityto ask custom survey questions directly from any demographic or onlineshopping category by appending those questions to a survey questionnairesuch as survey questionnaire 100 or 200. The data may also be developedinto information that helps educate consumers about their options in thee-commerce marketplace.

After a consumer inputs data into a survey questionnaire, the captureddata is entered into a survey data store and processed into informationaccording to the methods described in more detail below.

As used herein, “data” means facts and beliefs about the real world;“information” is data that has been processed and formatted to supportdecision making.

FIG. 3 shows an overview of a through-flow system 10, according to thepresent invention. As used herein, the term “through-flow” generallymeans a system for gathering, transferring, processing, evaluating data,and/or generating information in a continual stream, as well aspresenting and delivering such data and/or information in desired mediato interested parties or other systems. The system 10 may be used toevaluate data from a variety of sources, as mentioned above. Asindicated, for instance, it may receive and evaluate data from consumersatisfaction survey questionnaires, it may receive data from onlinemerchants about their activities, or it may receive data from users orthird parties who gather and provide data about electronic commerce.Generally, system 10 includes two or more networked computers. System 10may be divided into a client or remote system 11 that is composed of oneor more remote computer systems or terminals, e.g., 12 and 13, and aserver or local system 5 composed of one or more computer systems withone or more sets of system components that are physically locatedtogether or networked together over some distance. System 5 is the sideof system 10 that collects, processes, and evaluates data, and generatesand presents the resulting information. System 11 is the side of system10 that may provide data to system 5, or retrieve data from system 5.FIG. 4 illustrates features that would typically be found in a computersystem of system 10. As used here in a “computer system” generally meansa set of components that include one or more of the following: centralprocessing unit (“CPU”) 4.1; memory 4.2 and processing modules 22 oruser programs 4.21, operating system 4.22 and network interface 4.23,and related I/O subsystems 4.3 and 4.4, including one or more of thefollowing: disk drive, keyboard, mouse, display monitor, networkingcard, other subsystems well-known in the art, and related softwareapplications, including web browsers, web servers, database, and/orcommunications software. It will be understood by persons skilled in theart, that the computer system, particularly computer systems in system11 may also be in the form of a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA), awireless computer system or device capable of network communicationsover the Internet or other network, or a computer terminal or Internetappliance capable of such network communications.

The local system 5 generally includes data capture server 14 thataccepts data transfer from one or more data sources from remote system11 computer systems or terminals. The data may also enter the datacapture server by direct manual input or connection to storage mediumsuch as a CD-ROM, disk drive, floppy drive, memory cards, ZIP drivecartridges, and the like. System 5 further includes database 16, dataconditioner 18, database 20 for conditioned data, one or more dataprocessing modules 22, a display store 24 for storing processed data,and a presentation server 26 for presenting data or information to anend-user. These, and other possible software components of through-flowsystem 10 described herein, reside on one or more hardware componentsproviding addressable memory for a computer system of local system 5.

Computer systems of system 10 may execute a conventional operatingsystem, including, but not limited to, Microsoft Corporation's Window(sm) 3.x, 95, 98, 2000, NT or DOS operating systems; Linux operatingsystems; Sun Microsystems' Unix Solaris operating systems; IBM's AIXSolaris operating systems; SGI's IRIX Solaris operating systems or otheroperating systems, including, but not limited to Window's CE, Palm OS,etc. for PDAs, cellular devices, web devices, or other computingdevices.

The computer systems on system 10 may access and store data in anyvariety of data storage media, including, but not limited to, local harddrive, CD-ROM or other mass storage device, local area network servers,wide area network servers, Internet servers accessed via phone or cable,commercial consumer and business online services, distributedinformation sources such as any combination of the above, and local RAMif data is generated on demand or linked to other programs such asspreadsheet or database programs executing in RAM.

The components of computer systems of remote system 11 of the presentinvention may be disposed at various points of use including, but arenot limited to, the home (such as on a stand-alone multi-media PCconnected to an online service), office (such as on a workstationcomputer connected to a database on a WAN), kiosk used in-store, inhospitality services or training environments.

Turning to the specifics of system 10, the data that enters data capture14 may relate to an online commercial transaction such as the typediscussed above relative to survey questionnaires 100 and 200. Or it maybe any other data type sought to be collected. For example, a consumermaking an online purchase of goods from a merchant's website may beinvited to fill out a consumer satisfaction survey questionnaire 100 or200 following the transaction. The merchant's website may be located ona web server which may be part of or separate from system 10. In thecase of online survey questionnaires, the survey questionnaire may beprovided to the consumer as HTML, XML, Java Script, ActiveX, Applet, orother well-known mechanisms or formats for querying a local computersystem through a web browser. (Other servers in system 10 may use thesame mechanisms or formats for interfacing with other computers.) Thesurvey questionnaire could be served by a web server that is part oflocal system 5. For example, the web server could reside on data captureserver 14 or presentation server 26.

In local system 5, data capture server 14 serves as a web server forcapturing the data that a consumer inputs into consumer satisfactionsurvey questionnaire 100. In general, a web server is a computer systemthat runs software that enables access by remote computer systems orterminals via the Internet or other network transport to allowpresentation of information, data storage and transfer, and othertransactions. Suitable web server software is well known and includesApache Software Foundation's Apache Server web server; Netscape'sFASTTRACK series web server, Microsoft Corporation's IIS, and SunMicrosystems' JAVA WEB SERVER.

The survey questionnaire may be presented to a consumercontemporaneously with a transaction or at some defined time after thetransaction, or both. Email is another contemplated mode ofcommunicating a survey questionnaire to a consumer. The email couldcontain a plain text based questionnaire that would be parsable by datacapture server 14. Or the email might contain a link to an address thatcould serve the survey questionnaire in HTML, XML, Java Script, ActiveX,Applet, or other well-known mechanisms or formats for querying aconsumer through a web browser.

In one possible embodiment, the invitation to fill out surveyquestionnaire 100 is found on the receipt page that a consumer receivesconfirming an online order. The invitation includes a hyperlink to a webserver, e.g., data capture server 14, that presents survey questionnaire100 via the browser of a consumer computer system 12.

It is also possible that the data collection process could beinteractive. For example, the data received for certain fields mayprompt a web server or other component of system 10 to query theconsumer, or other provider of data, with respect to new fields that aredependent on data values sent to the system server 14. A survey takermight be asked to identify themselves as a male or female, with furthersurvey questions being selected based on the answer.

The survey questionnaire could contain defined fields for data values.For example, survey questionnaire 100 could be designed to accept datavalues that represent a rating on a 1–10 scale of the consumer'sperceptions about defined aspects of a transaction with a merchant, asdescribed above relative to survey questionnaires 100 and 200.

In addition to consumer perceptions about aspects of a transaction, thesurvey questionnaires could seek any other kind of information in whicha survey administrator may be interested. Such information may includedemographic information about a consumer (e.g., age, profession,education, etc.); the consumer's perceptions about, and experienceswith, online shopping (not limited to the transaction conducted); theconsumer's interest in other lines of goods and services; whether theconsumer wishes to participate in newsgroups, future offerings, etc.relating to the purchased product or any other subject matter.

The means for obtaining and collating survey data is well known in theart. For example, such techniques are disclosed in Peters, et al., U.S.Pat. No. 5,893,098 entitled “System And Method For Obtaining AndCollating Survey Information From A Plurality Of Computer Users”, theentire contents of which are hereby expressly incorporated by reference.For purposes of illustration, the following description shall be interms of an online merchant rating survey questionnaire 100, asdescribed above. The data shall be discussed in terms of a 1–10 ratingentered relative to attributes 102–110 in rating fields 112.

After a consumer completes a survey questionnaire, the resulting surveydata is fed to data capture server 14 and logged into a server log. Thelog records the collected data and may assign an identifier or key valueto the data. For example, the identifier could be an indicator of anynumber of things including the time of receipt, source (e.g., theparticular merchant), etc. The logged data may then be parsed by asoftware program that assigns items of the raw data into predefinedfields in a database 16. The parsing program may be created throughstandard program techniques that are known or within the skill ofpersons in the art. The parsing program would be designed to map datafrom the survey questionnaire to database records that are predefined.

Each record would be composed of one or more fields that correspond tothe class of an item of data and/or the value of an item of data. Anyfield may be keyed to any one or more other fields. For example, in thecase of survey questionnaire 100, the database would contain tables thatinclude a field for each particular attribute 102–110. The numericalrating from each survey questionnaire, or average rating from apredefined group of survey questionnaires, would be listed as itemsunder the relevant attribute 202–210 fields. Each table would typicallyinclude other fields such as survey identifier, time of receipt, source,etc.

Database 16, as well as any other database contemplated by thisinvention, including databases 20 and 24, may be based on any number ofknown database management systems (DBMS), including hierarchicaldatabases, network databases, relational databases, and object orienteddatabases. Suitable DBMS are widely available and include Oracle,Sybase, Microsoft SQL Server, and DB2. One suitable database system is arelational database based on SQL language. A suitable SQL database wouldtypically include a Data Definition Language (DDL) for creation of a newdatabase and new objects within an existing database; a DataManipulation Language (DML) for processing existing database objects;and a Data Control Language (DCL) for administering permissions andother security-related issues. The data processing is handled by adatabase engine database and can be accessed by various searching means,including Boolean logic evaluation, proximity calculations, and fuzzylogic evaluation. The databases of the present invention may also becustom designed, the design process and features being well within theskill of persons in the art.

The data fielded into database 16 may be conditioned by a dataconditioner 18. The data conditioner 18 is one or more applications thatperform some operation relative to the data. Data may be conditioned toclean, filter, or otherwise to process data. For example, the data maybe conditioned to supply imputed and/or default values to data itemsmissing from a particular field or to eliminate anomalous data that doesnot meet predefined criteria in terms of class and/or value. In furtherexample, the data may be conditioned to supply missing values; toeliminate data collected during holidays or other non-business days; toeliminate data based on demographic criteria; to check for anomalies;etc. Standard software programming skills may be used to develop desireddata conditioning programs.

Conditioned data may be stored in a database 20 for conditioned data.The data collected by the database 16, or other contemplated databases,may be communicated to the data conditioner 18, or other systemcomponents such as database 20 or processing module(s) 22 (discussedbelow), in a continuous stream, in batches at set intervals, or inbatches. Communication of data could be made dependent on specifiedconditions. For example, the specified conditions could include a setquantity of data having been received (e.g., after receipt of onehundred consumer responses to survey questionnaires); an elapsed periodof time (e.g., after one hour of collecting responses to surveyquestionnaires), or other specified conditions or combinations of suchconditions.

Databases 16, 20, and 24 are not intended to be limiting examples ofdatabases that are used in the present invention. Additional databasesmay be incorporated into system 10 besides those specifically indicated.These additional databases may be for the receipt of raw data,conditioned data, or processed data that flows through system 10, orselected categories of such data. It should also be appreciated that thedatabases may reside on the same hardware components or differenthardware components. The databases could also be operated under the sameor different DBMS.

One or more data channels 15 may be defined for the transmission of databetween the components of system 10. As used herein “data channel” meansa logical event, not necessarily a physical channel, directing the flowof data into computer storage and/or processing systems. Data channelsare determined by the structure of, for example, a survey questionnaire,or the way answers are coded into database fields, and the programs thatare to operate on predefined categories or items of data. A data channelmay also be a logical or computed combination of other data channels.

Looking at FIG. 3, one or more data channels 15 communicate parsed datafrom server 14 to assigned fields in database 16. More specifically,there could be a data channel assigned to each attribute 102–110 forcommunicating the ratings from rating fields 112 into the field in thedatabase that correspond to each attribute 102–110. Similarly, one ormore data channels 15 may communicate data from defined fields indatabase 16 to data conditioner 18. For example, raw data from database16 or conditioned data from database 20, may be introduced into database20 or directly into a processing module(s) 22 consisting of one or moreprocessing modules that perform a predetermined operation on data. Theprocessing modules may be in communication with each other or with othersystem components. As shown in FIG. 3, processing module(s) 22 transferprocessed data to a database 24 for storing processed data. Database 24is in communication with a server 26. Server 26 may be a web server forinterfacing with remote computer systems in system 11. Web server 26 maybe used to present data from database 24 to remote computer systems 12or 13 over a network 11. Alternatively, presentation server 26 couldpresent the data to a printer 34 or video display or computer system 36,or through other means for displaying data. (As used herein, “data”includes data in the form of files or data representing information,unless otherwise noted or clear from the context.)

One or more data channels 15 may communicate data from database 20 toprocessing module(s) 22. Although not illustrated in all cases, it willbe understood that any other components of system 10 may communicatedefined fields of data to another system component along a data channelassigned to a field(s) of data.

It is to be understood that the data channels depicted in FIG. 3 are forillustrative purposes only and should not be construed as a limitationon how data may be communicated between system components, other pathsbeing within the spirit and scope of this disclosure. For example, dataconditioner 18 is optional; although not illustrated, data may bedirectly introduced from database into a processing module 22.

Processing modules 22 may process data communicated to it to generatedesired forms of information. The processing may include computation ofratings; indices; consumer demographic profiles; merchant or merchantcategory session volumes; dollar volumes; lists of consumers for targetmarketing; etc. As used herein, such data or information may be referredto as “e-commerce” data or information. Standard software for suchprocessing is well known and available, or may be readily created bypersons skilled in the art, and therefore is not discussed furtherherein.

In the case of survey questionnaire 100, the processing module 22 couldbe programmed to compute ratings for each attribute 102–110, and otherstandard statistical values based on the ratings data. Accordingly, astatistical analysis process module would be capable of computing one ormore of the following:

-   -   Means using real numbers    -   Mean scores using factors (useful for rating scales)    -   Standard deviation    -   Standard error    -   Error variance    -   Z-tests (four tests for the difference between proportions)    -   T-tests (two tests for the difference between means)    -   P-values (a test of the probability that an event was chance)    -   Significance net difference test (on pairs of columns)    -   Least significant difference test (on means)    -   Paired preference test (on pairs of rows)    -   Chi-squared tests (one or two dimensional and single        classification types)    -   Proportions tests (four types)    -   Friedman's two-way analysis of variance    -   Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (on differences between two samples)    -   McNemar's test of the significance of changes    -   F-test for testing differences between a set of means    -   One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA)    -   Significance levels    -   Regression analysis    -   Trend analysis    -   Correlations    -   Covariances

The software for statistical analysis could be designed usingprogramming skills well within the skills of persons in the art.Well-known, off-the-shelf programs are also available. Such programsinclude the SPSS family of software products, including SPSS BASEPROFESSIONAL, v10.5 or v8.0, and Regression, Table, and/or AnswerTypemodule from SPSS, Inc., Chicago, Ill.

The processed data may then be transferred to a “display store” database24 for storing processed data or information. Database 24 may beconnected to a presentation server 26. The presentation server 26presents data that has been processed and evaluated by system 10 to anend-user, such as consumers or merchants 13. The display storeinformation may be accessible publicly or privately via computer systemsin system 11. Server 26 parses and sorts processed information intocategories that are defined according to defined needs or interests ofan end-user or group of end-users. The software for doing this must becoded according to the intended application of the user. The coding maybe written in standard programming codes that are known to personsskilled in the art. The relevant information may be presented to theend-user in any known form of communicating information, including:printed reports, emailed reports; server-stored reports accessible toend-users over a public or private network, including website postedreports. The presentation server may serve web pages to remote computerssystems through conventional TCP/IP protocols or other known protocols.The web pages may be presented through conventional web browsers such asINTERNET EXPLORER series of web browsers by Microsoft Corporation, orthe NETSCAPE COMMUNICATOR series of web browsers by NetscapeCommunications Corporation.

The following section describes an embodiment of system 5 that isadapted to process data from survey questionnaires 100 or 200 from asample of survey questionnaires from consumers that did business withonline merchants. The survey questionnaires may be supplied to datacapture server 14 at predefined intervals, in real time, or upon otherspecified condition. As will be clear after the detailed discussion ofmodules 221–223 provided below, the present invention can allow daily ormore frequent updates of usable information to end-users even thoughonly small and/or noisy data samples are available. Accordingly, thepresent invention sets new standards for minimizing the “time late” forturning data into information.

FIGS. 5 a–e show examples of information that may be derived from theratings from a set of survey questionnaires 100/200 for a particularmerchant for transactions occurring over set intervals (e.g., one day,one week, one month, etc.). Referring to FIG. 5 a, a table contains theaverage numerical rating for each attribute 102–110/202–210 on a monthlybasis over one quarter. FIGS. 5 b and 5 c show in graphical form theaverage ratings from FIG. 5 a. The graphs enable users to easily detectupward or downward trends for each attribute. Like FIG. 5 a, FIG. 5 dshows a table with the average quarterly rating for each attribute shownin FIG. 5 a. FIG. 5 e is a graphical representation of the quarterlyaverage ratings for each attribute from FIG. 5 d.

For simplicity, the following discussion shall be in terms of theProduct Price attribute 108, although it should be understood that theprinciples discussed are applicable to any other attribute102–110/202–210.

Turning now to FIGS. 6 a–b, specific information about price attribute108 from FIGS. 5 a–e is shown in table and graphical formats. The tableshows five categories of ratings. A rating of 1–2 corresponds to “verylow satisfaction”; 3–4, “low satisfaction”; 5–6 “moderate satisfaction”7–8 “high satisfaction”; and 9–10 “very high satisfaction”.

Data Stabilizer

FIGS. 7–8 and equations 1–34 below relate to a novel application forestimating or smoothing variable data. The schema presented below isparticularly useful for estimating values based on noisy and/or smalldata samples. It may also be used to predict missing observations. Theschema may be incorporated into system 10 as a processing module 22.Through the schema, the present invention offers notable advantages overtraditional modes of statistical analysis, such as moving windowaverages (weighted and unweighted), which do not provide accurateinformation if data samples are small or noisy. Consequently, inconventional techniques, the conversion of data to useful information isprolonged by the time necessary to collect the larger required samplesizes. Thus, the schema of the present invention provides notableadvantages over conventional methods used to evaluate data related toe-commerce. In one possible embodiment, the schema is used to stabilizeor filter consumer ratings data. While, for convenience, the followingdiscussion is largely in terms of evaluation of ratings data, thepresent invention also contemplates use of the schema in evaluatingother forms of data related to e-commerce. Accordingly, persons skilledin the art will appreciate that the present invention provides asubstantial and patentable advance over prior methods of processing andevaluating such data, particularly in the area of business ratings,market research studies, consumer demographics, etc.

A central component of the schema of FIG. 7. is an Extended KalmanFilter or (“EKF”). The EKF is detailed in FIG. 8. Generally, the EKFuses a computational (recursive) solution of the minimum varianceBayesian estimation method. The EKF is powerful in several aspects: itsupports estimations of past, present, and even future states. It can doso even when the precise nature of the modeled system is unknown. Inaddition to smoothing noisy data, evaluating small samples of data, andproviding a basis for estimations, the EKF also provides a method ofweighting data values according to the recency or level of noisecorruption of the data. This may be important because, for example, datacollected in a later portion of a data collection interval (data window)is likely to be more indicative of present trends than is data collectedat the earlier portion of the interval (older data).

Continuing with the example of survey questionnaire 100, the presentinvention provides a sequential filter that outputs an optimal estimateof a “rating” for an attribute 102–110 from a set of responses to surveyquestionnaires of such rating from a given merchant. The followingsection describes how the true rating may be determined from noisydata/small sample sizes. (In this section, related Figures, and insubsequent sections, certain mathematical equations are identified by anumber in bold and in brackets to the right of a given equation, whichnumber should not be confused with unbracketed reference numerals forthe accompanying Figures.)

In one preferred embodiment, a true rating A is determined using anadaptation of an Extended Discrete Kalman filter. It is to be understoodthat the following embodiment is presented for purposes of illustrationnot limitation. Persons skilled in the art will appreciate that otheradaptations of Kalman filters are within the scope and spirit of thepresent invention. In connection with the following discussion,reference may be made to FIGS. 7 and 8, which help illustrate theprinciples being discussed. Hereinafter, a processing module that cansmooth noisy or variable data using a computational (recursive) solutionof the minimum variance Bayesian estimation method is referred to as aData Stabilizer or “DS” for short.

It may be assumed that in a noisy sample of ratings observed over a settime interval, the desired “true rating” is actually a slowly varyingfunction of time, while the noisy (input) rating suffers from “samplingjitter” induced by often low response (small sample) and/or highlyvariable ratings for the input parameters from which the rating iscomputed.

The true rating A is a scalar valued function of parameter vector y ofdimension N.A=f (y)  [1]where y is a vector of sampled variables with mean ŷ and possiblycorrelated dispersions covariance y. Once A is determined, it could bereported as one of the attribute ratings shown in FIGS. 5–6 or used infurther computational processes of system 10 or elsewhere. To determineA, it may be assumed that variations of A over time can be described bya second or higher order polynomial in time t. $\begin{matrix}{{A(t)} =} & {c_{0} + {c_{1}t} + {c_{2}t^{2}}} & \lbrack 2\rbrack \\ = & {{\underset{\_}{x}}^{T}\left\lbrack {t^{0},t^{1},t^{2}} \right\rbrack}^{T} & {\mspace{405mu}\lbrack 2.1\rbrack} \\{\underset{\_}{x} =} & \left\lbrack {c_{0},c_{1},c_{2}} \right\rbrack^{T} & \lbrack 3\rbrack\end{matrix}$c_(i) are the components of x, the state vector of constants for thepolynomial [2]. A higher order polynomial for A(t) can be used ifwarranted by the underlying process modeled. (T means “matrixtranspose”, as is known in the art.)

Observation Process: This “ratings process” is actually observed by asequence of computed noisy ratings 221.2 at times t_(i), i=1, 2, 3 . . .such that t_(i+l)>t_(i). ThenÃ(t _(i))=h[x (t _(i))]  [4]with $\begin{matrix}{{{cov}\;{\overset{\sim}{A}\left( t_{i} \right)}} = \left\lbrack {\frac{\partial h^{T}}{\partial y}\;{cov}\;\underset{\_}{y}\;\frac{\partial h}{\partial y}} \right\rbrack_{\overset{\sim}{y}{(t_{i})}}} & \lbrack 5\rbrack\end{matrix}$Ã is termed the pseudo observable; it is a function of actualobservations. In what follows, the time index i may be used to denotethe value of a time indexed variable at t_(i). {tilde over (y)} is theobserved parameter vector which itself may be computed from capturedsurvey questionnaire responses.

State Vector: The estimation problem may now be reduced to finding theoptimal value {circumflex over (x)} of x which is termed the statevector of the process. Then at t_(i) we havex _(i) =[c _(0,i) , c _(1,i) , c _(2,i)]^(T)  [6]with covariance P_(i)=cov x _(i)[7]. It is noted that t_(i+1)=t₁+Δt_(i)for all i and arbitrary Δt_(i)>0.

State Transition: The estimated polynomial [2] is assumed to be stableover “reasonable” time intervals that encompass the last few observationtimes. Accordingly, the state transition equation may be written asx _(i+1) =Ix _(i) +r _(i)  [8]where I is the identity matrix and r _(i) is “state noise” such that E(r _(i))=0 and R_(i)=cov r _(i)[9]. It may be further assumed thatΔt_(i) are large enough so that E(r _(i) ^(T)r_(j))=0 for i≠j, i.e. thatthe noise is uncorrelated over time (explicitly E(r _(i) r _(j)^(T)=R_(i)δ_(ij))).

Observation Equation: The pseudo observation Ã_(i) then is related tostate byÃ _(i) =m _(i) ^(T) x _(i) +w _(i)  [10]where the pseudo-observation or measurement vector m _(i) is given bym _(i)=[1, t _(i) , t _(i) ²]^(T)  [11]and the measurement noise isE(w _(i)=0 and E(w _(i) w _(j))=W_(i) δ_(ij) for all i, j.  [12]It is noted that the observation covariance W_(i) is identically theerror induced in Ã by the errors propagating from the actual observedparameters {tilde over (y)} given in [5]. Therefore we set$\begin{matrix}{W_{i} = {{{cov}\;{\overset{\sim}{A}}_{i}} = \left\lbrack {\frac{\partial h^{T}}{\partial y}\;{cov}\; y\;\frac{\partial h}{\partial y}} \right\rbrack_{\overset{\sim}{y}\; i}}} & \lbrack 13\rbrack\end{matrix}$

The estimator elaborated below is the discrete Kalman filter, asdescribed for example, in 1 Brogan, W., Modem Control Theory,Prentice-Hall, 1985. The discrete Kalman filter is here adapted to theobserved ratings process developed above. In the following description,the subscript j/i denotes a parameter value at t_(j) computed byinput(s) available at t_(i). The filter gain matrix (in this case avector) for processing the input at t_(i) is written asK _(i) =P _(i1/i-1) m _(i) [m _(i) ^(T) P _(i/i-1) m _(i) =W_(i)]⁻¹  [14]where the state noise propagates as captured by the covariance matrixP=cov(x) over Δt_(i-1) asP _(i/i-1) =P _(i-1/i-1) +R _(i-1).  [15]

If we let C_(i)=I−K_(i) m _(i) ^(T) [16] then the covariance of state att_(i) (i.e. cov x _(i/i)) is given byP _(i/i) =C _(i) P _(i/i-1) c ^(T) −K _(i) W _(i) K ^(T)  [17]With these preliminaries, we write the estimate of state for t_(i) nowas{circumflex over (x)} _(i) ={circumflex over (x)} _(i-1) +K _(i) [Ã _(i)−A _(i/i-1)]  [18](this represents the main equation for Kalman filtering), noting thatA_(i/i-1)=A_(i)({circumflex over (x)} _(i-1))=m _(i) ^(T) {circumflexover (x)} _(i-l) [18.1] is the predicted rating. (We use the singlesubscripts in [18] and elsewhere for simplicity due to the constancy ofstate evolution as indicated in [8] above.)

From [15] we see that R forms a floor for the error covariance of ourestimate {circumflex over (x)} since at every stage we propagate errorby adding R to the last estimated covariance. We also see that thefilter gain K is diminished by encountering a very noisy observationrepresented by a large W. This lets R be used as the filter memorylength controller, i.e. we should believe time late estimates only tothe extent that we believe in the validity (or accuracy) of our statetransition model [8]. This lets us shorten the memory length byincreasing R thereby appropriately abandoning or deweighting pastobservations.

We recall that the estimate is updated in [18] by multiplying thecurrently observed “innovation” (Ã_(i)−A_(i/i-1)) by the filter gain,where “innovation” is the difference between what we actually observedand what we expected to observe. If our state model is good and ourfilter is working properly, then the innovation sequence will approach azero-mean white noise process with covariance given by [5].

Finally, the data stabilizer and its variance is computed from$\begin{matrix}{{\hat{A}}_{i} = {{{\underset{\_}{m}}_{i}^{T}{\hat{\underset{\_}{x}}}_{i}\mspace{25mu}{and}\mspace{25mu}{\sigma_{i}^{2}\left( \hat{A} \right)}} = \left\{ {\left\lbrack \frac{\partial A}{\partial\underset{\_}{x}} \right\rbrack_{i}^{T}{P_{i/i}\left\lbrack \frac{\partial A}{\partial\underset{\_}{x}} \right\rbrack}_{i}} \right\}}} & \lbrack 19\rbrack\end{matrix}$= m ₁ ^(T) P _(i/i) m ₁  [20]

Implementation: The time origin may be set to always represent thepresent time, i.e. t_(i)=0. This requires some important modificationsto the above-derived model, which will make the resulting computationsmore efficient.

In [8] the transition will now require the use of a non-trivial transferfunctionΦ(i,i+1). This is derived as follows:

Let t_(i-1)=0 (i.e. at last estimate of polynomial), then using x _(i-1)we can predict A (t>t_(i-1)) asA(t)=[1, t, t ² ]x _(i-1)  [21]Now if we shift the time origin by Δt_(i-1) to t_(i), then the newcoefficient vector x _(i) must satisfyA(t)=[1, t−Δt _(i-1), (t−Δt _(i-1))²]x _(i)  [22]Equating the corresponding time shifted coefficients then gives$\begin{matrix}\left. \begin{matrix}{c_{{i - 1},0} = {c_{i,0} - {c_{i,1}\Delta\; t_{i - 1}} + {c_{i,2}\Delta\;{t_{i - 1}}^{2}}}} \\{c_{{i - 1},1} = {c_{i,1} - {2c_{1,2}\Delta\; t_{i - 1}}}} \\{c_{{i - 1},2} = c_{i,2}}\end{matrix} \right\} & \lbrack 24\rbrack\end{matrix}$which may be written asx _(i-l)=Φ(i, i−1)x _(i)  [25]where Φ(i, i−1) is now the system transfer function retrodicting statefrom t_(i) backwards to t_(i-1). $\begin{matrix}{{\Phi\left( {i,{i - 1}} \right)} = \begin{bmatrix}1 & {{- \Delta}\;{\overset{.}{t}}_{i - 1}} & {\Delta\; t_{i - 1}^{2}} \\0 & 1 & {{- 2}\Delta\; t_{i - 1}} \\0 & 0 & 1\end{bmatrix}} & \lbrack 26\rbrack\end{matrix}$Invertible system transfer functions have the property thatΦ(i−1,i)=Φ⁻¹(i, −1) [Brogan, p. 291] which we require since we want togo from x _(i-1) to x _(i). Therefore, $\begin{matrix}{\Phi_{i} = {{\Phi\left( {{i - 1},i} \right)} = \begin{bmatrix}1 & {\Delta\; t_{i - 1}} & {\Delta\; t_{i - 1}^{2}} \\0 & 1 & {2\Delta\; t_{i - 1}} \\0 & 0 & 1\end{bmatrix}}} & \lbrack 27\rbrack\end{matrix}$which gives us the desired state transition and lets us rewrite [8] asx _(i+1/i) =Φ _(i) x _(i/i) +r _(i)  [28]

The pseudo-observation vector in [11] now becomes simplym=[1 0 0]^(T)  [29]since we are “observing” only c_(i,o) at t_(i)=0.

The estimator equations must now be expanded to include Φ_(i).Specifically [15] now becomesP _(i/i-1)=Φ₁ P _(i-1/i-1)Φ_(i) ^(T) +R ₁  [30]which changes filter gain [14] toK _(i)=[Φ_(i) P _(i-1/i-1)Φ_(i) ^(T) +R _(i) ]m[m ^(T)(Φ_(i) P_(i-1/i-1)Φ_(i) ^(T) +R _(i)) m+W _(i)]⁻¹  [31]And since t_(i)=0 at all estimation points, we have the output of datastabilizer [19] asÃ _(i) ={circumflex over (x)} _(1,i) =ĉ _(0,i)  [32]with variance from [20] reducing toσ_(i) ²(Â)=(P ₁ ₁)_(i/i)  [33]where Ã_(i) is obtained from the current estimate of state now given by$\begin{matrix}\begin{matrix}{{\underset{\_}{\hat{x}}}_{i/i} = {{\underset{\_}{\hat{x}}}_{{i/i} - 1} + {K_{i}\left\lbrack {{\overset{\sim}{A}}_{i} - A_{{i/i} - 1}} \right\rbrack}}} \\{= {{\underset{\_}{\hat{x}}}_{{i/i} - 1} + {K_{i}\left\lbrack {{\overset{\sim}{A}}_{i} - \left( {\hat{c}}_{0} \right)_{{i/i} - 1}} \right\rbrack}}}\end{matrix} & \lbrack 34\rbrack\end{matrix}$

FIG. 7 shows an implementation of the DS into system 5 as a processingmodule 221. Observed ratings from a survey questionnaire 100 or 200 at atime t are stored in database 20, as described above relative to FIG. 3.A nominated response set is defined in step 221.6 of processing module221, which in FIG. 3 is represented as one of the processing modules 22.The nominated response set, for example, may be the set of individualratings for a particular survey questionnaire attribute collected from aparticular merchant over a defined interval, such as 24 hours. Thenominated response set may be expressed as Y_(i)={y_(j):j=[1,N]}_(i). Acontrol parameter database 221.16 is used to store process parametersfor process module 221. Step 221.8 calls on process 221 to make adecision relative to N for the nominated response set. For N greaterthan 0, the average value and variance for the set is computed in step221.10. The effective observed covariance W_(i) for the valuesdetermined in step 221.10 are then determined in step 221.14. W_(i) isthen introduced into the EKF steps 221.22, described above, and shown inflow-chart form in FIG. 8. Returning to decision step 221.8, for N equalto 0, step 221.12 extrapolates the last state estimate by settingK_(i)=0, which outputs to EKF steps 221.22. EKF steps 221.22 thenprovide outputs to 221.24 wherein the form of the stabilized or truerating A (which may also be expressed as Variablev_(stabilized)=x_(i/1)(1)) and a standard deviation of the datastabilizer (which may be expressed as the square root of [P_(i/1)(1,1)]) is extracted. A data stabilizer may then be introduced into astabilized values database 221.6. This database may be the same as ordifferent from database 24 in FIG. 3. The data stabilizer A or otheroutput of steps 221.22 and 221.24 also may be introduced into othercomputational processes, e.g., other process modules 22 and/orpresentation means, such as presentation server 26.

Data stabilizers may be introduced into control parameters database221.16 to update it. Averages and variances from process step 221.10,and observed covariances from process step 221.14 may also be introducedinto database 221.16 to update. Using control parameters, namely R & Wmatrices, and specified innovation thresholds from database 221.16, aninnovation analysis may be performed in step 221.18 on the{Ã_(i)=({tilde over (c)}₀)_(i/i-1)} sequence. Output from step 221.18may then be used to compute and reset the memory length control R_(i)(the covariance of the state transfer function) for input to the EKFsteps 221.22. Extended Kalman Filter steps 221.22 may also directlyaccess control parameters database 221.16 to obtain inputs to t_(i),t_(i-1), state vector x _(i-1/i-1) and covariance P_(i-1/i-1) forcomputing the next state vector x_(i/i) and the covariance of stateP_(i/i).

Referring to FIG. 8, the general EKF steps 221.22 are shown in moredetail. Steps 221.23–221.36 represent an observed process having a statex. The state of a process may be denoted as x_(i+1)=f(x_(i/i), t_(i-1),t_(i))+r_(i), where t_(i) represents a point in time. In the real world,the estimate of state x is imperfectly known. In step 221.24 y^(*)represents an average of a set of one or more noisy observations andw_(i) is the observed covariance. The symbology used in FIG. 8 generallycorresponds to that of Equations 1–34. (EKF 221.22 is adapted for use indetermining true rating A in Equations 1–34 above, accordingly theEquations 1–34 may not directly correspond to FIG. 8 in terms ofsymbology, but any differences in light of the included legend will beunderstood by persons skilled in the art).

The foregoing estimation model may be implemented in standardprogramming languages for mathematical functions. Below is one exampleof the DS model coded in MATLAB programming language. Persons skilled inthe art will appreciate that other programming languages may also beused to implement the foregoing principles. The program is used tostabilize ratings from a consumer survey questionnaire:

clear all % read and parse data array load daily_aval_d % daily_aval_d =(value, variance, julian date) nmax = size(daily_aval_d,1); % number ofdata points At = daily_aval_d(:,1); W = daily_aval_d(:,2); wmin = 6; %minimum allowed observation noise wmax = 30; % maximum allowedobservation noise W(W>wmax) = wmax; W(W<wmin) = wmin; t =daily_aval_d(:,4); % initialize filter %xlast = [At(1) 0 0]′; % initialstate (quadratic coeffs) xlast = [6.5 0 0]′; %Plast = [1.5 0 0 % 0 .01 0% 0 0 .001]; % covar of initial state Plast = [0.795 0.0082 0 0.00820.0001 0 0 0 0]; m = [1 0 0]; % measurement vector xsigs = [1e-4 1e-51e-4]; % coeff DAILY transition sigmas R = diag(xsigs.*xsigs,0); %constant DAILY state transition covariance I = eye(3); % Output arrayinitialization StabilizedRatingsout = zeros(nmax,4);StabilizedRatingsout(1,1) = xlast(1); % initialized input valueStabilizedRatingsout(1,2) = sqrt(Plast(1,1)); % sigma of input valueStabilizedRatingsout(1,3) = t(1); % time value % run main loop andgenerate output array for i = 2:nmax dt = t(i)−t(i−1); % current timeincrement (should be 1) U = [1 dt dt{circumflex over ( )}2 0 1 2*dt 0 01]; % state transition matrix if At(i)==99 % then extrapolate from lastestimated state StabilizedRatingsout(i,1) = [1 dt dt*dt]*xlast; %extrapolated estimate of value Pnow = U*Plast*U′ + R;  % extrapolatedstate covariance xnow = U*xlast;  % extrapolated state else % run filterwith current observation w = W(i); % pseudo-observation variance Pnext =U*Plast*U′ + R; % predicted state covariance temp1 = Pnext*m′; K =temp1/(m*temp1 + w); % filter gain C = I − K*m; Pnow = C*Pnext; %current cov of estimated state xnext = U*xlast; % predicted state innov= At(i) − xnext(1); % innovation xnow = xnext + K*innov; % currentestimate of state StabilizedRatingsout(i,4) = innov; end % conditionalextrapolate or filter calcs % hard limit c0 to max allowed value ofrating if xnow(1)> 10 xnow(1)= 10; end xlast = xnow; Plast = Pnow; %fill output array StabilizedRatingsout(i,1) = xnow(1);StabilizedRatingsout(i,2) = sqrt(Pnow(1,1)); end % main observation/timeloop % compute 25% level At Risk Threshold ART array tART = 6.5; % theselected rating threshold pART = 0.9995; % the probability that actualrating < tART limART = norminv(pART,0,1); rART =StabilizedRatingsout(:,1) + limART*StabilizedRatingsout(:,2); ART =tART*(rART<tART); % array of threshold violations % output results plot.At(At>10) = 0; W(W>10)=0.5; figure(1) clf hold on tstart = 245; % fullrange 245 to 638 tend = 638; istart = find(t==tstart); iend =find(t==tend); indexART = find(ART>0 & t>=tstart & t<=tend);plot(t(istart:iend),At(istart:iend),‘gx’,t(istart:iend),StabilizedRatingsout((istart:iend),1),‘b’,t(istart:iend),StabilizedRatingsout((istart:iend),2),‘b--’)plot(t(indexART),ART(indexART), ‘r*’,t(istart:iend),0.1*StabilizedRatingsout((istart:iend),4),‘c.’ ) gridhold off Copyright in the foregoing code is claimed by BIZRATE.COM. @

Alarm Filters

Along any data channel, there is a normative rate of data transmittedand normative values for the data. One or more alarm filter(s) 28 can beset to monitor data rates and send a signal based on deviations fromdesired thresholds from the normative rate. The normative rate may bebased on any defined interval (the “synoptic response rate”). An alarmfilter may check for deviations calculated from a sampling of data takenwithin the normative interval (the “topical response rate”). To set analarm, a historical or expected arrival rate is determined or set forone or more data channels. The standard deviation may also be determinedor set for the arrival rate. A predetermined threshold may be setrelative to a topical response rate. The threshold may be set by asystem administrator or automatically determined through a selectedcorrelation function. If the alarm filter determines that a threshold iscrossed, it triggers an alarm that may be sent to an event handler.

For example, a normative interval may be set at one month as the periodover which a consumer survey questionnaire is collected from aparticular merchant's website. Suppose the response rate for aparticular merchant's consumer survey questionnaire averages 300 per30-day period. This average is the historical arrival rate. This givesan average of 30 surveys collected per day. An alarm filter could be setto monitor the number of surveys collected per day from a particularmerchant. The system administrator could desire that if the dailycollection of surveys for the merchant drops below 5 on a given day, analert signal should be sent to the merchant or other party. This wouldallow the merchant to investigate the reason for the drop in responserate. The system 5 via event handler 32 or data monitoring system 30,for example, could automatically send the merchant a signal such as anemail to alert the merchant to the drop in rating. The merchant couldthen investigate the reason—perhaps competitors have dropped theirprices, causing consumers to shop elsewhere, or perhaps the surveyquestionnaire is not being presented to purchasing consumers due totechnical reasons. With respect to survey questionnaire response rates,there could be correctable reasons for the alarm: a webmaster of amerchant website may have inadvertently deleted from a web page theprompt for a consumer survey questionnaire or placed it in a location ona web page that does not sufficiently attract consumer attention orinterest. An alarm would give the system administrator an opportunity toinvestigate why the response rate has decreased or increased allowingdata flow to be maintained at desired or useful levels.

Alarm filters 28 may be associated with the processing modules 22 togive online merchants the ability to respond to changes in themarketplace at the earliest possible stage and to correct technicalproblems. In FIG. 3, the filters 28 are shown connected to one or moredata channels 15 between server 14 and database 16. An alarm filter 28may be associated with any data channel or channels between two systemcomponents. The alarm filters 28 could also be associated with any otherdata channels 15 in system 5. The alarm filter sends a signal to anevent handler 32 when a specified condition is met. The event handler 32could be a computer system, a display device, telecommunications devicesuch as pager or phone, etc. The event handler 32 would inform a machineor person, such as a system administrator, end-user or other designatedindividual of the alarm.

FIG. 9 shows a flow chart of one possible alarm filter for monitoringsurvey questionnaire response rates. The alarm process 28.1 is startedwith a data run in system 5. In decision step 28.2, the alarm systemmonitors a data channel for activity. If the system is not in an activedata run, the alarm process ends in step 28.7. If the system is active,in step 28.3, synoptic response rates are calculated or input per a setinterval of time. In step 28.4 topical response rates are calculated orinput per a set interval of time. The calculated values are comparedwith predetermined high thresholds in decision step 28.5. If a responseis above a high threshold, a signal is sent to event handler 32. If thehigh threshold is not crossed, the values from step 28.4 are compared toa predefined low threshold in step 28.6. If the low threshold iscrossed, a signal is sent to event handler 28. If neither a high or lowthreshold is crossed, the system returns to the start step 28.1.

The software code for the foregoing may be implemented in any number ofprogramming languages within the skill of persons in the art. As anexample, MATLAB source code for one possible alarm filter process is asfollows:

% ‘rrmonitorHIGH.m’ Response Rate Monitor computes response % numberthresholds for high (resps/day >= 30) arrival rates. % CopyrightBizrate.com clear all % low arrival rate M = 100; % length of data run(number of days) lam = 500; % mean arrival rate (responses per day)sqrtlam = sqrt(lam); R = poissrnd(lam,1,M); % responses data array Phigh= 0.9; Plow = 0.1; % high/low prob thresholds nhigh0 =norminv(Phigh,lam,sqrtlam); % high number threshold nlow0 =norminv(Plow,lam,sqrtlam); % low number threshold N = 30; % length ofdata window for computing lam figure(1) clf hold on plot(R)plot([0,M],[nhigh0,nhigh0],‘r’) plot([0,M],[nlow0,nlow0],‘r’) errorcount= 0; for i = N:M−1 % cycle through the data run lastN = R(1,i−N+1:i);lam = sum(lastN)/N; % average of last N data points sqrtlam = sqrt(lam);nhigh = norminv(Phigh,lam,sqrtlam); % upper threshold nlow =norminv(Plow,lam,sqrtlam); % lower threshold plot(i+1,nhigh,‘b.’)plot(i+1,nlow,‘b.’) if R(i+1) >=nhigh % test for issuing ‘high alert’ ifR(i+1) >= nhigh0 plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘go’) else plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘ro’) %erroneous alert errorcount = errorcount + 1; end elseif R(i+1)<=nlow %test for issuing ‘low alert’ if R(i+1)<= nlow0 plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘go’)else plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘ro’) % erroneous alert errorcount = errorcount +1; end end end grid hold off errorcount % ‘rrmonitorLOW.m’ Response RateMonitor computes response % number thresholds for low (resps/day < 15)arrival rates. clear all % low arrival rate M = 100; % length of datarun (number of days) lam = 3; % mean arrival rate (responses per day) R= poissrnd(lam,1,M); % responses data array Phigh = 0.9; Plow = 0.1; %high/low prob thresholds nhigh0 = poissinv(Phigh,lam)+1; % high numberthreshold nlow0 = poissinv(Plow,lam); % low number threshold N = 15; %length of data window for computing lam figure(1) clf hold on plot(R)plot([0,M],[nhigh0,nhigh0],‘r’) plot([0,M],[nlow0,nlow0],‘r’) errorcount= 0; for i = N:M−1 % cycle through the data run lastN = R(1,i−N+1:i);lam = sum(lastN)/N; % average of last N data points nhigh =poissinv(Phigh,lam)+1; % upper threshold nlow = poissinv(Plow,lam); %lower threshold if R(i+1) >=nhigh % test for issuing ‘high alert’ ifR(i+1) >= nhigh0 plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘go’) else plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘ro’) %erroneous alert errorcount = errorcount + 1; end elseif R(i+1) <=nlow %test for issuing ‘low alert’ if R(i+1) <= nlow0 plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘go’)else plot(i+1,R(i+1),‘ro’) % erroneous alert errorcount = errorcount +1; end end end grid hold off errorcount Copyright in the foregoing codeis claimed by BIZRATE.COM.

Saturation Limited Forecast Model

The present invention also provides a saturation limited forecast model(hereinafter “SLF Model”) that forecasts the growth of a population froma set of early observations. This model may be integrated into system 5as a processing module 22. The SLF Model may be used to predict variousvalues of interest to businesses. The forecasting methodology fore-commerce measures and consumer behaviors may be advantageously basedon the saturation limited forecasting model of the present invention.For example, the model may be used to predict sales volumes for acategory or categories of goods or services; number of females over theage of 18 participating in e-commerce; number of merchants offering acertain category of goods or services. Values for e-commerce measuresand consumer behaviors, such as the foregoing may be referred to hereinas “e-commerce populations.” An example of an SLF Model is morespecifically shown in FIG. 10 as processing module 222.

More specifically, the SLF processing module uses available recenthistorical data along with an estimated and/or available saturation“population” function as the basis for a differential equation thatdefines the growth of a “population” to a maximum attainable level. Thisdifferential equation actually embodies a family of realistic“penetration processes” that are found in nature and most areas of humanactivity. The results from this technical approach avoid the errorsoften encountered in conventional “constant percent rate” predictormodels.

The SLF Model embodies a non-linear mathematical programming solution toselect the optimum set of process defining parameters from the definedinputs. Once the nominal penetration function is obtained, thedifferential equation can be solved for any arbitrary time point in thefuture to provide the synoptic or nominal value forecast. Depending onthe nature of the historical data set, the SLF Model also can extractthe cyclic (i.e. seasonal or topical) variations for the predictedpopulation. Additionally, by entering a range of values for the inputs,the SLF Model will generate a “forecast funnel” that encompasses theconfidence intervals of such input data.

In the SLF Model, the growth of a population may be forecasted from aset of early observations. To do this, we assume that there is a knownor assumed, possibly time varying, population level P₀(t) or “pullfunction” which sets the saturation limit to growth. A primary SLF Modeloperating principle is that growth is generated by an underlying processand that the rate of growth at any time is proportional to theunsaturated or remaining population. The proportionality is specified bya time varying penetration function r(t) which characterizes the total“level of effort” process. The population growth differential equationcan then be written as$\frac{\mathbb{d}P}{\mathbb{d}t} = {{r(t)}\left\lbrack {{P_{0}(t)} - {P(t)}} \right\rbrack}$

A functional form, usually, but not limited to, a polynomial withcoefficient vector c, is then assumed for the penetration functiongiving r(c, t). The differential equation is then numerically integratedto generate the predicted population P(c,t). If we have a set ofobservations {P_(i)|i=1, . . . , N}, then we can solve for the value ofc ^(*) that makes P(c ^(*), t) a best fit to these points in, say, aleast squares manner. In short, we numerically solve${\underset{\_}{c}}^{*} = {\arg\;{\min\limits_{\underset{\_}{c}}\left\{ {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\;\left( {P_{i} - \left\lbrack {\int_{t_{0}}^{t_{F}}{{{r\left( {\underset{\_}{c},t} \right)}\ \left\lbrack {{P_{0}(t)} - {P(t)}} \right\rbrack}{\mathbb{d}t}}} \right\rbrack_{t_{i}}} \right)^{2}} \right\}}}$where t₀ may be specified (along with t_(F)) or included in theoptimized parameter set.

Turning now to the novel forecasting method in further detail, in [1](bracketed numbers refer to the equations herein with the correspondingbracketed numbers) a population is penetrated at a rate proportional toa residual population P_(r). The proportionality is determined by apenetration function r(t) which captures the level of effort expended inorder to penetrate P_(r) and, possibly, maintain the achievedpenetration P(t). We further assume the influences of time-varyingsaturation level P₀(t) which yields the residualP _(r)(t)=P ₀(t)−P(t)  [1]giving the penetration rate as $\begin{matrix}\begin{matrix}{\frac{\mathbb{d}P}{\mathbb{d}t} = {{r(t)}{P_{r}(t)}}} \\{= {{r(t)}\left\lbrack {{P_{0}(t)} - {P(t)}} \right\rbrack}}\end{matrix} & \lbrack 2\rbrack\end{matrix}$

For arbitrary r and P₀ function, the solution to [2] is schematicallyshown in FIG. 11.

PROBLEM STATEMENT: Suppose we have a usable estimate of P₀ and severalvalues of P, say {P_(k); k=1, K}, for arbitrary times t_(k), with Kequal to the number of observed points. If we also assume a functionalform for r( ) that requires knowledge of a parameter vector c ^(T)=[c₁,c₂, . . . ] of constants, then we would like to devise a method of usingthe P_(k) to extract {circumflex over (r)}(t)=r(ĉ,t) such that [2] canbe numerically solved to yield {circumflex over (P)}(t) and σ_(p), whichare graphically represented in FIG. 12. The σ_(p) bounds shown may bederived by stochastic sampling of the probability distributionscharacterizing the inputs or simply approximated from the solutionsusing the max and min ranges of the saturation function P₀.

Note the addition of to defined from P(t≦t₀)=Ø. The inclusion of t₀ as ahard constraint may only be required if we seek an analytical solutionto [2] as discussed in [1]. In other words, t₀ is implicit in theselection of expressing the t_(k).

We need to extract the optimum ĉ that yields P(ĉ,t)={circumflex over(P)}(t). This optimum population growth function is derived fromminimizing $\begin{matrix}{{J(c)} = {\sum\limits_{k = 1}^{K}\;\left\lbrack {{P\left( {\underset{\_}{c},t_{k}} \right)} - P_{k}} \right\rbrack^{2}}} & \lbrack 3\rbrack\end{matrix}$which then defines $\begin{matrix}{\underset{\_}{\hat{c}} = {\underset{\underset{\_}{c}}{\arg\;\min}\;{J\left( \underset{\_}{c} \right)}}} & \lbrack 4\rbrack\end{matrix}$

The problem is that with any time-varying (i.e. realistic) P₀(t) it isnot possible to solve$\frac{\mathbb{d}P}{\mathbb{d}t} = {r\left\lbrack {P_{0} - P} \right\rbrack}$to yield an analytic expression as a function of some parameter vectorsuch as c. For a given c we can obtain P(c,t) only by numerical solutionof the differential equation. This suggests the core computationalscheme for {circumflex over (P)}(t) (SLF 222) shown in FIG. 10 in steps222.2–222.16.

In SLF, the prime saturation or “pull” function drives$\frac{\mathbb{d}P_{1}}{\mathbb{d}t} = {{r(t)}\left\lbrack {P_{0} - P_{1}} \right\rbrack}$with forecast horizon t₀,k₀. The prime or top level pull(saturationlimit) P₀ draws and meters the growth of P₁. These conceptsare graphically shown in FIG. 13. Once P₁ is generated, it can act asthe pull function for the next contained/constrained population P₂ andso on. Each saturation limited population P₁ is generated from an inputset that contains its birth time t_(1,0) and a set of observed tuples{P′_(1, k), t_(1, k)|k=1, K₁}. (An example table of such tuples ispresented in FIG. 14.) Proper birth times are t_(1,0)≧t_(l-1,0) for l=1,2, . . . Proper observations are such thatP′ _(l, k) <P _(l-1)(t _(l, k))∀l, k

This input horizon for all SLF forecasts is t_(0,K) ₀ since nosuccessive pull function can be computed beyond that horizon. All birthtimes are such that t_(0,l)≧t_(0,l-1)∀l. FIG. 14 shows an example inputarray for SLF, including conjoined observations and predictions for alll and K_(l).

The foregoing forecasting model may be implemented in standardprogramming languages for mathematical functions. Below is one exampleof the forecasting model coded in MATLAB programming language. Thepopulation being evaluated is a hypothetical Food & Wine commercesector.

% Saturation Constrained Forecast Diff Eqn test solver % Quadraticpenetration, free birth time t0, weighted observations clear all globalCONST OBS NOBS TINT W % Prime Saturation (‘Pull’) Pop function constantsp = 16096; q = 199; % Penetration Function constants r =a+bt+ct{circumflex over ( )}2 and birth time. a = .00001; b = 0; c = 0;t0 = 0; CONST = [p q a b c t0]; % Master time interval tmin = 0; tmax =30; TINT = [tmin tmax]; % observed pop levels tobs = [9 10 11 12 13];Pobs = [20 40 87 210 385]; W = [10 1 1 1 1]; % observation relativeweights %W = [1000 10 30 50 100]; % observation relative weights W =W/sum(W); % normalized weights % cyclic compensation inputs nforecasts =6; % nforecasts <= tmax − max(tobs) Ncycle = 4; % length of cycle >=NOBS fcomp = .8; % correction factor to compensations NOBS =size(tobs,2); OBS = [tobs; Pobs]; % compute Pen (J) Funct constants X0 =[a b c t0]; % initial X value ub = [.01 .01 .01 min(tobs)−1]; % upperbound on X lb = [−0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −10]; % lower bound on X options =optimset(‘MaxFunEvals‘,2000); [X,J] = fmincon(‘Jfun33’,X0,[ ], . . . [],[ ],[ ],lb,ub,[ ],options); % compute the optimal P function fromP(TINT(1))=0 [T,P] = ode45(‘dP33’,[X(4) TINT(2)],0); P0 = CONST(1) +CONST(2)*T; % compute cyclically compensated forecasts mindif = T −OBS(1,1); maxdif = T − OBS(1,NOBS); imin = find(abs(mindif) ==min(abs(mindif)))−1; imax = find(abs(maxdif) == min(abs(maxdif)))+1; c =polyfit(T(imin:imax),P(imin:imax),3); obsComps =OBS(2,:)./polyval(c,OBS(1,:))−1; nstart = max(tobs)+1; foreTimes =[nstart:nstart+nforecasts−1]; nomforecasts = polyval(c,foreTimes);compfore = zeros(1,nforecasts); iOffset = mod(NOBS,Ncycle);  % indexoffset in Obs array for i = 1:nforecasts compfore(i) =nomforecasts(i)*(1+obsComps(iOffset+max(mod(i,Ncycle),(mod(i,Ncycle)==0)*Ncycle))*fcomp);%compfore(i) = nomforecasts(i); end % generate figure figure(1) clf holdon Forecasts = compfore; Measured = Pobs; NomGrowth = P;plot(tobs,Measured,‘rx’,foreTimes,Forecasts,‘go’)plot(T,NomGrowth,‘-’,T,P0,‘--’) axis([0 tmax 0NomGrowth(foreTimes(size(Forecasts,2)))]) %axis([0 20 0 800]) set(gca,‘XTick’, [0:1:tmax]) title(‘SLF Food&Wine’) xlabel(‘Qtrs − 95Q4=0’)ylabel(‘Online Sales $M’) legend(‘Measured’,‘Forecasts’,‘NomGrowth’)grid on hold off function J = Jfun33(X) % criterion function for SALIMx,gjr 7apr99/27apr99 global CONST OBS NOBS TINT W % solve DE and computeSaturation Level array CONST(3) = X(1);  CONST(4) = X(2); CONST(5) =X(3);  CONST(6) = X(4); [T,P] = ode45(‘dP33’,[X(4) 1.1*OBS(1,NOBS)],0);% fit solution poly P(t) over observation interval mindif = T −OBS(1,1); maxdif = T − OBS(1,NOBS); imin = find(abs(mindif) ==min(abs(mindif))); imax = find(abs(maxdif) == min(abs(maxdif)))+1; c =polyfit(T(imin:imax),P(imin:imax),3); Ppoly = polyval(c,OBS(1,:));%compute criterion function jcomps = Ppoly − OBS(2,:); jcomps =(jcomps.*jcomps)*W′; J = sum(jcomps); function dy = dP33(t,y) globalCONST OBS NOBS TINT W P0 = CONST(1) + CONST(2)*t; dy =(CONST(3)+CONST(4)*t+CONST(5)*t*t)*(P0 − y); if dy<0 dy = 0; endCopyright in the foregoing code is claimed by BIZRATE.COM. @

Dynamic Activity Icon

The present invention also contemplates a processing module 22 thatrelates to the display of a dynamic icon that indicates to the user of aremote computer system some level of activity elsewhere in system 10.The dynamic icon could convey graphic or text-based information or both,as described in more detail below. In one possible embodiment, a dynamicicon or text is displayed through the web browser of a consumer'scomputer system or terminal that indicates to the consumer the level ofactivity by other visitors to a particular merchant's website. Forexample, the dynamic icon indicates the current/recent level of buyingactivity for the merchant. The activity could be indicated on areal-time basis or on defined time intervals. It could also relate toall transactions taking place at the merchant's site or on subcategoriesof transactions. In one embodiment, the dynamic icon is associated withratings information about one or more merchants whose ratings are madeaccessible to consumers through presentation server 26. The dynamic iconcould also be associated directly with a merchant's own web server, viapresentation server 26 of system 5, for viewing by consumers as theyvisit the merchant's website.

In the case of buying activity, the relevant data is received intosystem 5 as a survey questionnaire 100, for example. If surveyquestionnaires are served only to purchasing consumers, tracking thenumber of served questionnaires for a particular merchant, directlyindicates the level of buying at a particular merchant. Alternatively,each survey questionnaire returned by a consumer could be correlated tobuying activity (A correlation is necessary because not all purchasingconsumers will complete and return a survey questionnaire.) The surveyquestionnaire contents may also be used to determine the activity levelof other matters contained or associated with a survey. For example, thesurvey questionnaire may ask the purchaser to describe items purchase,quantities, prices, etc.

Alternatively, electronic cookies may be used to follow consumers tocertain categories of websites or to specific websites. The cookiescould be received by data capture server 14. The presentation servercould let consumers and/or merchants know which websites are receivingthe most traffic. The traffic could be reported, broken down by categoryof trade. For example, the online music store website with the mosttraffic. This should help consumers identify where there are specialpromotions or available products, etc. This should help merchantsunderstand what their competitors are doing for market research purposesor for competitive response.

The methodology for a dynamic icon that communicates the level ofactivity of some predefined subject matter is well within the skill ofpersons in the art. For example, FIG. 15 shows a flow chart for anactivity module process 23 that receives data input from a data source,such as database 20. The example is in terms of the level of saletransactions on a point-of-sale website. In step 23.1, the point of sale(“POS”) data for a merchant is read from database 20. In step 23.2, thenumber of POS transactions for the merchant is calculated. In step 23.3,the calculated value is returned to display database 24. The calculatedvalue is then accessible to presentation server 26 in step 23.4.Presentation server 26 presents the calculated value as a dynamic iconaccessible to remote computer systems through their web browser, forexample.

In another embodiment, an activity-level applet is received and storedby a consumer's computer. This is reflected in FIG. 15 at step 23.5. Theapplet generates a dynamic icon in the form of a flashing dot, forexample. The icon flashes in proportion to the level of activity on aparticular merchant site. The consumer's computer is informed of theactivity level by accessing a data source that communicates datarepresentative of the activity level. This is reflected in step 23.6 ofFIG. 15. The data is input into the activity-level applet that createsan output in the dot flashing at a rate proportionate to the level ofbuying at the merchant's site.

The present invention contemplates that a plurality of dynamic icons maybe associated or arrayed with each other. By simultaneously displayingmore than one dynamic icon, one or more icons may serve as referencepoints of activity relative to one or more other icons. In oneembodiment, at least two icons are simultaneously displayed, each iconrepresenting activity levels for a different merchant. In a preferredembodiment, the merchants provide competitive goods or services. Inanother possible embodiment, the dynamic icons are displayed on aconsumer's computer and are associated with hyperlinks to the merchants'websites.

In a further embodiment, there are at least two icons simultaneouslydisplayed, one icon representing activity at a merchant website, and theother icon being a reference icon that represents a predefined level ofactivity against which other displayed dynamic icons may gauged. In afurther embodiment, there are at least three icons simultaneouslydisplayed, at least two of which represent activity at competitivemerchants, and at least one of which represents a reference icon. Inaddition, the present invention also contemplates simultaneous displayof multiple groups of competitive merchants. It also contemplates thatthe activity level may represent a variety of things, and is not limitedto level of point-of-sale activity. For example, it could indicate levelof traffic at the site; types of products or services being sold oroffered; numbers of a product or service type or category being sold;inventory levels; special promotions or discounts; buyer demographicalattributes, etc.

Consumers could investigate websites based on their interest in a levelof indicated by a dynamic icon. For example, a relatively high rate ofactivity could mean exceptional prices, special offerings, goodreputation, etc. This gives consumers (or merchants) a basis forcomparing the level of activity between merchants. It also helps promoteconsumer confidence in e-commerce.

With respect to the foregoing embodiments, a Poisson random numbergenerator may be used to generate a sequence of numbers that representsarrival rates. The number of survey questionnaires served or the numberof completed surveys received, for a predetermined interval, could bethe basis for the input of the mean rate into the Poisson random numbergenerator. The mean arrival rate would then be sent from a presentationserver or communicated to a consumer's computer, for example, as inputinto the activity-level applet implementing the Poisson random numbergenerator on a consumer's computer.

The dynamic icon is not limited to a flashing dot. It could be anynumber of things, including a numerical value; textual description ofactivity; a graphic image that connotes a level of activity, such as aflashing colored, say, red dot; an audio-based icon that verbally orconnotatively describes some level of activity, etc.

Infomediary Service

The foregoing embodiments, including DS, SLF, response rate alarmfilters, and dynamic icon may be incorporated into a system that assistsconsumers in making e-commerce decisions, particularly which merchantsto purchase from. (The system would also be applicable and readilyadaptable to business-to-business e-commerce).

In one possible embodiment, the presentation server 26 is a web serverthat hosts an “infomediary website” (as described by Hagel, John III andSinger, Marc in Net Worth; Boston, Mass.; Harvard Business School Press1999) that consumers may access through computer systems via theInternet or other network. The website includes web pages having a listor table of merchant websites. The list or table could categorizemerchants in any way, including by sector, by size, by how long theyhave been in engaged in e-commerce, by geography, by customersatisfaction ratings, by specials offered, etc. A displayed list of oneor more merchants may be displayed to a consumer by the consumerselecting desired categories from a menu on a web page. Alternatively,the displayed list may be generated based on search criteria entered bya consumer and presentation of results by a search engine. Each merchantdisplayed could be associated with a dynamic icon showing sellingactivity, for example.

The consumer may access a displayed merchant's website throughhyperlinks in the list or table. Preferably, the list or table includesratings for each displayed website, to help consumers evaluate thewebsite for relevant attributes, such as those of survey questionnaires100 and 200. Other information about the merchant could also bedisplayed or accessed through associated hyperlinks. Ratings and otherinformation could be based on data processed through the DS, SLF, or anyother module of the present invention. The list or table also mayinclude icons or information denoting merchant websites that participatein consumer rebate programs. The infomediary website may also be linkeda merchant's website for access to data about availability of productsor services, pricing, etc. The foregoing has been in terms of a web pageshowing a listing or table of merchants. The foregoing discussion wouldalso apply to a web page with a listing of goods or services bycategory. Listed goods or services products could be associated withmerchants selling the desired goods or services.

Still further, proximity searching means may be presented to theconsumer for finding nearest neighbors to a displayed item on theinfomediary website relative to specified attributes of an item. In thisregard, U.S. Pat. No. 5,983,220, entitled “Supporting Intuitive DecisionIn Complex Multi-Attribute Domains Using Fuzzy, Hierarchical ExpertModels”, commonly owned by the assignee of the present invention, ishereby expressly incorporated by reference for all that is taughttherein.

A membership program may be used on the infomediary website, allowingregistered members preferred access to information, automatednotifications about subject matter within their scope of interest, orother preferential treatment. A registered member would be someoneproviding predetermined categories of information called for by theinfomediary website, such as personal data, shopping preferences,participation fees, etc. The infomediary website could notify aregistered member of discounted prices for goods or service in whichthey have expressed an interest. The infomediary website could alsoarrange for incentive programs for its members such as specialdiscounts, rebates, frequent buyer programs, etc. could be offered by orthrough the infomediary. For example, registered members purchasing froma participating merchant could receive a rebate according to predefinedterms of a rebate program.

FIGS. 17–23 show web pages illustrating features in accordance with theforegoing discussion. The web pages could be served by presentationserver 26 in earlier Figures. FIG. 16 is an example of a home page foran infomediary web site. The page describes a number of products andservices that may be browsed or searched by a consumer visiting the website. The page also announces incentive programs and special offerprograms. The names, descriptions, and symbols on the web pages of FIGS.17 to 23 may be presented in the form of links to other pages inside oroutside the infomediary website. The web page also has means to allow aconsumer to search for products or services via categories listed on apull down menu. A search prompt is presented by selecting a categoryfrom the pull down menu and clicking on the go button. The web page ofFIG. 16 also presents certain popular products in the left margin of thepage.

FIG. 17 is a web page from the infomediary web site of FIG. 16. Thispage represents the “Computer Hardware & Software” category from thepage of FIG. 16, and may be reached by clicking on that category name inthe web page of FIG. 16. The page lists subcategories of products. Thepage also includes a search prompt for searching by product identifiers,such as SKU numbers. There are additional pull-down menus to producesearch prompts to search or find other categories or merchants.Incentive programs and special offers may also may be presented oraccessed through the web page.

FIG. 18 is a web page from the infomediary web site of FIG. 16. Thispage represents the “PDAs” category shown on the Computer Hardware &Software category web page of FIG. 17. The “PDAs” web page of FIG. 18may be reached by clicking on that category name on web page in FIG. 17.The Web page of FIG. 18 lists merchants carrying PDA products. Themerchant names are associated with overall ratings in the form of 1–5stars. The ratings may also be distinguished as to merchants thatparticipate in a customer ratings program. A consumer visiting theinfomediary site may learn details of such a program by a linked webpage describing the program, e.g. the web page of FIGS. 19 a–b.Merchants that allow post-purchase surveys of consumers are indicatedwith gold rating stars and non-participating merchants with silverstars, as described in FIGS. 19 a–b.

A consumer can learn more about a merchant listed on the web page ofFIG. 18 by clicking on the merchants' name. The merchant name may, forexample, link to further ratings information or provide comments orreviews by consumers or others. The web pages with such information maybe on or off the website of the infomediary. Special offers such asrebates are also associated with a listed merchant, as seen in FIG. 18.An “on time” rating attribute is also associated with a listed merchant.The ratings and other information presented on the web page may bederived from one or more of the processing modules of discussed above,including the DS and SLF processing modules. Other attributes, such asdescribed for surveys 100 and 200 of the earlier Figures may beassociated with a listed merchant. As indicated in FIG. 18, searchingand sorting features may also be included on the web page to search orsort for desired rating attributes, product pricing, productcharacteristics, product availability, etc.

A dynamic activity-level icon, as discussed above may also be associatedwith merchants listed on the web page of FIG. 18. In this case it is adot of varying size, the larger the dot the higher the activity level.Consumers may select to browse or shop at a merchant's website byclicking on the “GO SHOP” icon seen of the web page. The icon provides adirect link to the merchant's website. Preferably the link is to a webpage on the merchant's website that includes the product of interest.FIG. 20 represents the web page of the merchant named “eCost.com”. Theweb page shows price and product information for a PDA.

The web page of FIG. 18 also lists in the right hand margin a number ofPDA products considered to be top picks according to selected criteriabelieved to be relevant to consumers. Clicking on a product may take theconsumer to a list of one or more merchants offering the product.

The web page of FIG. 18 page also includes search and sort prompts forsearching by merchant ratings, product identifiers or characteristics,such as manufacturer or keywords. There are additional pull down menusto produce search prompts to search or find other categories ormerchants. Incentive programs and special offers may also may bepresented or accessed through the web page.

An example referral incentive program offered on the infomediary website is described on the web page of FIG. 21.

An example of special offers presented on the infomediary web site isdescribed on the web page of FIG. 22.

An example form for becoming a registered member of the infomediary ispresented on the web page of FIG. 23.

The foregoing embodiments are for illustrative purposes and are notintended to be limiting, persons skilled in the art capable ofappreciating other embodiments from the scope and spirit of theforegoing teachings.

1. A system, comprising: a plurality of processing modules configuredfor performing a predefined set of operations on data received from adata source, at least two processing modules being selected from thegroup consisting of: a data stabilizer processing module for smoothingnoisy or variable data using a computational solution of a minimumvariance Bayesian estimation method; a saturation limited forecastingmodule (SLF) for using available historical or recently captured dataalong with an estimated and/or available saturation population functionas the basis for an algorithm that defines the growth of the populationto a maximum attainable level; a dynamic activity-level icon module foriconically indicating to the user of a remote computer system relativelevels of activity at network sites for different merchants offeringcompetitive goods or services; and an alarm filter module for monitoringdata rates and sending a signal based on deviations from desiredthresholds from a normative rate; wherein at least one of the at leasttwo selected processing modules is the data stabilizer processing moduleor the saturation limited forecasting module; wherein the SLF moduleuses a pull function P₀(t) which sets a population's saturation limit togrowth and a penetration function r(t) which characterizes the totallevel of effort process, the SLF forecasting the value of a populationfor a given time; and wherein the system is configured for presentingselected items of data following the sequential processing of data bythe at least two selected processing modules; and wherein the system isadapted to receive and process data related to an online e-commercetransaction.
 2. The system of claim 1 wherein the data source comprisesone or more remote computer systems.
 3. The system of claim 1 wherein atleast three of said processing modules are selected and the system isconfigured for presenting selected items of data following thesequential processing of data by the at least three selected processingmodules.
 4. The system of claim 1 wherein four of the processing modulesare selected and the system is configured for presenting selected itemsof data following the sequential processing of data by the at least fourselected processing modules.
 5. The system of claim 1 wherein at leastthree of said processing modules are selected.
 6. The system of claim 1wherein one selected processing module comprises a data stabilizerprocessing module and one selected processing module comprises an alarmfilter module.
 7. The system of claim 1 wherein one selected processingmodule comprises a data stabilizer processing module and one selectedprocessing module comprises a dynamic activity-level icon module.
 8. Thesystem of claim 1 wherein one selected processing module comprises adata stabilizer processing module and one selected processing modulecomprises a saturation limit forecasting module.
 9. The system of claim1 wherein the at least one of the at least two selected processingmodules is the data stabilizer processing module.
 10. The system ofclaim 1 wherein the at least one of the at least two selected processingmodules is the saturation limited forecasting module.
 11. A system,comprising: a plurality of processing modules configured for performinga predefined set of operations on data relating to e-commercetransaction received from a first plurality of remote computer systems,at least two processing modules being selected from the group consistingof: a data stabilizer processing module for smoothing noisy or variabledata using a computational solution of a minimum variance Bayesianestimation method; a saturation limited forecasting (SLF) module forusing available historical or recently captured data along with anestimated and/or available saturation population function as the basisfor an algorithm that defines the growth of the population to a maximumattainable level; a dynamic activity-level icon module for iconicallyindicating to the user of a remote computer system a level of activityat each of a plurality of merchant network sites, the dynamicactivity-level icon module automatically causing the indication ofactivity to be sent to the remote computer system upon user access to anelectronic page comprising a listing of a plurality of merchants; and analarm filter module for monitoring data rates and sending a signal basedon deviations from desired thresholds from a normative rate; wherein atleast one of the at least two selected processing modules is the datastabilizer processing module or the saturation limited forecastingmodule; wherein the SLF module uses a pull function P₀(t) which sets apopulation's saturation limit to growth and a penetration function r(t)which characterizes the total level of effort process, the SLFforecasting the value of a population for a given time; and wherein thesystem is configured to present to a second plurality of remote computersystems via a computer network a set of items or data generated from thesequential processing of the data by the at least two processingmodules.
 12. The system of claim 11 wherein the system is configured toreceive e-commerce data over the Internet.
 13. The system of claim 12wherein the data generated by the processing modules is presented overthe Internet to a second plurality of remote computer systems comprisingconsumer computer systems.
 14. The system of claim 13 wherein the secondplurality of remote computer systems comprise one or more merchantcomputer systems.
 15. The system of claim 13 wherein the secondplurality of remote computer systems comprise a plurality of consumercomputer systems.
 16. The system of claim 15 wherein at least three ofthe processing modules are selected for sequential processing of thedata.
 17. The system of claim 15 further comprising a dynamicactivity-level icon processing module.
 18. The system of claim 13wherein the system is configured to present the processed data to aplurality of merchant and consumer computer systems.
 19. The system ofclaim 18 wherein one selected processing module comprises a datastabilizer processing module and one selected processing modulecomprises an alarm filter module.
 20. The system of claim 18 wherein oneselected processing module comprises a data stabilizer processing moduleand one selected processing module comprises a dynamic activity-levelicon module.
 21. The system of claim 20 further comprising an alarmfilter processing module.
 22. The system of claim 18 wherein oneselected processing module comprises a data stabilizer processing moduleand one selected processing module comprises a saturation limitforecasting module.
 23. The system of claim 13 wherein the presenteddata comprises ratings for online merchants, the ratings being based ondata received from the first plurality of remote computer systems,wherein the first plurality comprises consumer computer systems.
 24. Thesystem of claim 12 wherein the system is configured toto serve a surveyquestionnaires to first plurality of remote computer systems, the systembeing configured to receive data supplied in response to a survey and toprocess the data using the selected processing modules.
 25. The systemof claim 11 wherein the at least one of the at least two selectedprocessing modules is the data stabilizer processing module.
 26. Thesystem of claim 11 wherein the at least one of the at least two selectedprocessing modules is the saturation limited forecasting module.
 27. Acomputer implemented method, comprising: capturing data from a firstplurality of remote computers systems over the Internet; performing apredefined set of operations on data received from the first pluralityof computer systems at least two processing modules being selected fromthe group consisting of: a data stabilizer processing module forsmoothing noisy or variable data using a computational solution of aminimum variance Bayesian estimation method; a saturation limitedforecasting (SLF) module for using available historical or recentlycaptured data along with an estimated and/or available saturationpopulation function as the basis for an algorithm that defines thegrowth of the population to a maximum attainable level; a dynamicactivity-level icon module for iconically indicating to the user of aremote computer system a level of activity at each of a plurality ofmerchant network sites, the module automatically causing the indicationof activity to be sent to the remote computer system upon user access toan electronic page comprising a listing of a plurality of merchants; andan alarm filter module for monitoring data rates and sending a signalbased on deviations from desired thresholds from a normative rate, theone or more processing modules outputting processed data or information;and presenting selected items of processed data or information followingthe sequential processing of the data using the at least two processingmodules, wherein at least one of the at least two selected processingmodules is the data stabilizer processing module or the saturationlimited forecasting module, wherein the SLF module uses a Dull functionP₀(t) which sets a population's saturation limit to growth and apenetration function r(t) which characterizes the total level of effortprocess, the SLF forecasting the value of a population for a given time,and wherein the captured data relates to e-commerce transactions. 28.The method of claim 27 wherein the e-commerce transactions compriseconsumer-merchant transactions.
 29. The method of claim 28 wherein atleast three of said processing modules are selected.
 30. The method ofclaim 28 further comprising serving a survey questionnaire to the firstplurality of remote computer systems, and, and capturing completedsurvey data for use in the selected processing modules.
 31. The methodof claim 30 wherein the first plurality of computer systems comprise aplurality of consumer computer systems and the survey data relates to anonline transaction between a consumer and a merchant.
 32. The method ofclaim 28 wherein the first plurality of computer systems comprise one ormore merchant computer systems.
 33. The method of claim 27 wherein thee-commerce transactions comprise business to business transactions. 34.The method of claim 27 wherein at least three of said processing modulesare selected.
 35. The method of claim 27 wherein four of the processingmodules are selected.
 36. The method of claim 27 wherein the processeddata is presented to a plurality of merchant computer systems.
 37. Themethod of claim 27 wherein the processed data is presented to aplurality of consumer computer systems.
 38. The method of claim 37wherein the data comprises ratings for online merchants.
 39. The systemof claim 27 wherein the at least one of the at least two selectedprocessing modules is the data stabilizer processing module.
 40. Thesystem of claim 27 wherein the at least one of the at least two selectedprocessing modules is the saturation limited forecasting module.
 41. Apresentation server that includes web pages containing data orinformation that has been derived from at least two processing modulesselected from the group consisting of: a data stabilizer processingmodule for smoothing noisy or variable data using a computationalsolution of a minimum variance Bayesian estimation method; a saturationlimited forecasting (SLF) module for using available historical orrecently captured data along with an estimated and/or availablesaturation population function as the basis for an algorithm thatdefines the growth of the population to a maximum attainable level; adynamic activity-level icon module for iconically indicating to the userof a remote computer system a level of activity at each of a pluralityof merchant network sites, the module automatically causing theindication of activity to be sent to the remote computer system uponuser access to an electronic page comprising a listing of a plurality ofmerchants; and an alarm filter module for monitoring data rates andsending a signal based on deviations from desired thresholds from anormative rate, the web pages being accessible to a plurality of remotemerchant systems over a computer network, wherein at least one of the atleast two selected processing modules is the data stabilizer processingmodule or the saturation limited forecasting module, and wherein the SLFmodule uses a Dull function P₀(t) which sets a population's saturationlimit to growth and a Penetration function r(t) which characterizes thetotal level of effort process, the SLF forecasting the value of apopulation for a given time.
 42. The presentation server of claim 41wherein the network comprises the Internet.
 43. The presentation serverof claim 42 wherein the web pages include evaluation information aboutmerchant performance, the information being derived from data processedby a selected processing module.
 44. The system of claim 41 wherein theat least one of the at least two selected processing modules is the datastabilizer processing module.
 45. The system of claim 41 wherein the atleast one of the at least two selected processing modules is thesaturation limited forecasting module.
 46. A presentation server thatincludes web pages containing data or information that has been derivedfrom at least two processing modules selected from the group consistingof: a data stabilizer processing module for smoothing noisy or variabledata using a computational solution of a minimum variance Bayesianestimation method; a saturation limited forecasting (SLF) module forusing available historical or recently captured data along with anestimated and/or available saturation population function as the basisfor an algorithm that defines the growth of the population to a maximumattainable level; a dynamic activity-level icon module for iconicallyindicating to the user of a remote computer system a level of activityat each of a plurality of merchant network sites, the moduleautomatically causing the indication of activity to be sent to theremote computer system upon user access to an electronic page comprisinga listing of a plurality of merchants; and an alarm filter module formonitoring data rates and sending a signal based on deviations fromdesired thresholds from a normative rate, the web pages being accessibleto a plurality of remote consumer computer systems over a computernetwork, wherein at least one of the at least two selected processingmodules is the data stabilizer processing module or the saturationlimited forecasting module, and wherein the SLF module uses a Pullfunction P₀(t) which sets a population's saturation limit to growth anda penetration function r(t) which characterizes the total level ofeffort process, the SLF forecasting the value of a population for agiven time.
 47. The presentation server of claim 46 wherein the networkcomprises the Internet.
 48. The presentation server of claim 47 whereinthe web pages include ratings of merchant websites, the ratings beingderived from data processed by a selected processing module.
 49. Thepresentation of claim 46 wherein the web pages include ratingsinformation for one or more products; the ratings information beingderived from data captured from remote computer systems.
 50. The systemof claim 46 wherein the at least one of the at least two selectedprocessing modules is the data stabilizer processing module.
 51. Thesystem of claim 46 wherein the at least one of the at least two selectedprocessing modules is the saturation limited forecasting module.